Outdoor time is considered to reduce the risk of developing myopia. The purpose is to evaluate the evidence for association between time outdoors and (1) risk of onset of myopia (incident/prevalent myopia); (2) risk of a myopic shift in refractive error and c) risk of progression in myopes only. A systematic review followed by a meta‐analysis and a dose–response analysis of relevant evidence from literature was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant papers. Of the 51 articles with relevant data, 25 were included in the meta‐analysis and dose–response analysis. Twenty‐three of the 25 articles involved children. Risk ratio (RR) for binary variables and weighted mean difference (WMD) for continuous variables were conducted. Mantel–Haenszel random‐effects model was used to pool the data for meta‐analysis. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I 2 test with I 2 ≥ 50% considered to indicate high heterogeneity. Additionally, subgroup analyses (based on participant's age, prevalence of myopia and study type) and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A significant protective effect of outdoor time was found for incident myopia (clinical trials: risk ratio (RR) = 0.536, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.338 to 0.850; longitudinal cohort studies: RR = 0.574, 95% CI = 0.395 to 0.834) and prevalent myopia (cross‐sectional studies: OR = 0.964, 95% CI = 0.945 to 0.982). With dose–response analysis, an inverse nonlinear relationship was found with increased time outdoors reducing the risk of incident myopia. Also, pooled results from clinical trials indicated that when outdoor time was used as an intervention, there was a reduced myopic shift of −0.30 D (in both myopes and nonmyopes) compared with the control group (WMD = −0.30, 95% CI = −0.18 to −0.41) after 3 years of follow‐up. However, when only myopes were considered, dose–response analysis did not find a relationship between time outdoors and myopic progression (R 2 = 0.00064). Increased time outdoors is effective in preventing the onset of myopia as well as in slowing the myopic shift in refractive error. But paradoxically, outdoor time was not effective in slowing progression in eyes that were already myopic. Further studies evaluating effect of outdoor in various doses and objective measurements of time outdoors may help improve our understanding of the role played by outdoors in onset and management of myopia.

Risk factor analysis provides an important basis for developing interventions for any condition. In the case of myopia, evidence for a large number of risk factors has been presented, but they have not been systematically tested for confounding. To be useful for designing preventive interventions, risk factor analysis ideally needs to be carried through to demonstration of a causal connection, with a defined mechanism. Statistical analysis is often complicated by covariation of variables, and demonstration of a causal relationship between a factor and myopia using Mendelian randomization or in a randomized clinical trial should be aimed for. When strict analysis of this kind is applied, associations between various measures of educational pressure and myopia are consistently observed. However, associations between more nearwork and more myopia are generally weak and inconsistent, but have been supported by meta-analysis. Associations between time outdoors and less myopia are stronger and more consistently observed, including by meta-analysis. Measurement of nearwork and time outdoors has traditionally been performed with questionnaires, but is increasingly being pursued with wearable objective devices. A causal link between increased years of education and more myopia has been confirmed by Mendelian randomization, whereas the protective effect of increased time outdoors from the development of myopia has been confirmed in randomized clinical trials. Other proposed risk factors need to be tested to see if they modulate these variables. The evidence linking increased screen time to myopia is weak and inconsistent, although limitations on screen time are increasingly under consideration as interventions to control the epidemic of myopia.