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Background Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in lowincome and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types.Methods This population-based cohort study included adults aged 35-74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality.Findings Of 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59•3 years (SD 9•8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50•8 years (10•3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3-4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46-48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17-22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22-27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41-42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41-42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42-46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18-27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35-44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17-18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15-16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26-29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12-20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12-19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke.Interpretation After a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to s...

The relationship between blood pressure variability (BPV) and stroke recurrence is controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of short-term and long-term BPV for stroke recurrence. The data from blood pressure and clinical outcome in TIA or ischemic stroke (BOSS) study included participants with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 7 days after onset. Short-term BPV was measured by 24-h ambulatory BP measurement during hospitalisation. Long-term BPV, based on home blood pressure measurement, was measured by patients or their families from discharge to 90 days after qualifying events onset (twice daily). Variability for systolic blood pressure (SBP) was assessed as the s.d., coefficients of variance (CV). The clinical outcome was recurrent stroke within 1 year. Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the association of short-term BPV, long-term BPV and stroke recurrence. Among 1764 participants, the mean age was 62.45±10.99 years, and 32.1% were females, during 1-year follow-up, 106 (6.0%) participants experienced recurrent stroke. Indices of long-term BPV were significantly associated with stroke recurrence (s.d.: adjusted HR: 1.939, 95% CI: 1.122-3.351; CV: adjusted HR 1.955, 95% CI: 1.174-3.255), independent of mean SBP. However, all indices of short-term BPV (s.d., CV) were not associated with stroke recurrence (s.d.: adjusted HR: 1.245, 95% CI: 0.680-2.280; CV: adjusted HR: 1.142, 95% CI: 0.640-2.038). In conclusion, long-term variation of SBP is a better predictor than short-term variation of SBP for recurrent stroke after acute ischemic stroke or TIA.