The SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein variant D614G supplanted the ancestral virus worldwide, reaching near fixation in a matter of months. Here we show that D614G was more infectious than the ancestral form on human lung cells, colon cells, and on cells rendered permissive by ectopic expression of human ACE2 or of ACE2 orthologs from various mammals, including Chinese rufous horseshoe bat and Malayan pangolin. D614G did not alter S protein synthesis, processing, or incorporation into SARS-CoV-2 particles, but D614G affinity for ACE2 was reduced due to a faster dissociation rate. Assessment of the S protein trimer by cryo-electron microscopy showed that D614G disrupts an interprotomer contact, and that the conformation is shifted towards an ACE2 binding-competent state, which is modeled to be on pathway for virion membrane fusion with target cells. Consistent with this more open conformation, neutralization potency of antibodies targeting the S protein receptor-binding domain was not attenuated.

Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness underscores the value of rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. We have developed PyR 0 , a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR 0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR 0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, ranks the fitness of lineages as new sequences become available, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.