The association between vascular stiffening and blood pressure is likely bidirectional. The present study was designed to examine temporal relationships among vascular stiffness, blood pressure progression, and hypertension. The Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community study is a community-based, prospective, long-term follow-up observational study. The present investigation is based on the baseline examinations (2010)(2011) and the first follow-up measurements (2012)(2013) included in the study. A total of 4025 participants were followed for an average of 27 months. Of 2153 participants free of hypertension at the baseline examination, 432 (20.07%) had incident hypertension. The authors observed that brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was an independent predictor of incident hypertension. baPWV during baseline examination was positively associated with higher systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure during the first follow-up examination. baPWV but not blood pressure during baseline examination was associated with baPWV during the first follow-up examination. This study not only provides evidence that baPWV is an independent predictor of blood pressure progression and incident hypertension, but also provides evidence that blood pressure is not associated with baPWV after adjusting for baseline baPWV. J Clin Hypertens (Greenwich). 2015;17:582-591. ª 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Arterial stiffness and blood pressure (BP), which increase with age, are associated with increased morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases.1,2 It is traditionally believed that elevated BP may cause structural and functional alterations in the walls of the central elastic arteries and accelerated conduit artery stiffening.3,4 Conversely, conduit artery stiffening may increase pressure pulsatility and thereby may increase systolic BP (SBP). Temporal relationships between vascular stiffness and BP remain incompletely elucidated. Moreover, arterial stiffness is increasingly recognized as an important prognostic index and potential therapeutic target in patients with hypertension. 5,6 The 2013 guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension acknowledge the potential role of arterial stiffness measurement in clinical management. 7Several previous observational studies have revealed that aortic stiffness predicts progression to hypertension in normotensive individuals. [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] However, assessment of aortic stiffness using echocardiography is not the most suitable method since specialized equipment and expertise is required. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cf-PWV) is considered a "gold-standard" method for assessing central artery stiffness, but the technique is hindered by the intimate nature of femoral pulse acquisition and is not the most suitable method for mass examination of individuals to identify those with increased risk of hypertension. Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is an alternatively developed technique with...

BackgroundIt is a daunting task to discontinue pertussis completely in China owing to its growing increase in the incidence. While basic to any formulation of prevention and control measures is early response for future epidemic trends. Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) has been emerged as a powerful tool in decomposing time series into different constituents, which facilitates better improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus we aim to integrate modeling approaches as a decision-making supportive tool for formulating health resources.MethodsWe constructed a novel hybrid method based on the pertussis morbidity cases from January 2004 to May 2018 in China, where the approximations and details decomposed by DWT were forecasted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR), respectively. Then, the obtained values were aggregated as the final results predicted by the combined model. Finally, the performance was compared with the SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques.ResultsThe hybrid technique at level 2 of db2 wavelet including a SARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)12modelfor the approximation-forecasting and NAR model with 12 hidden units and 4 delays for the detail d1-forecasting, along with another NAR model with 11 hidden units and 5 delays for the detail d2-forecasting notably outperformed other wavelets, SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques in terms of the mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Descriptive statistics exhibited that a substantial rise was observed in the notifications from 2013 to 2018, and there was an apparent seasonality with summer peak. Moreover, the trend was projected to continue upwards in the near future.ConclusionsThis hybrid approach has an outstanding ability to improve the prediction accuracy relative to the others, which can be of great help in the prevention of pertussis. Besides, under current trend of pertussis morbidity, it is required to urgently address strategically within the proper policy adopted.

Tongkat Ali (Eurycoma longifolia; TA) is known to increase testosterone levels and alleviate aging males' symptoms. This study aimed at investigating TA as an ergogenic supplement for elderly people. Thirteen physically active male and 12 physically active female seniors (57-72 years) were supplemented with 400-mg TA extract daily for 5 weeks. Standard hematological parameters were taken. In addition, the concentrations of total and free testosterone, dihydroepiandrosterone, cortisol, insulin-like growth factor-1, and sex hormone-binding globulin were analyzed. As additional biochemical parameters, blood urea nitrogen and creatine kinase as parameters of kidney function and muscle damage, respectively, as well as the muscle strength by a simple handgrip test were determined. After treatment, hemoglobin, testosterone, and dihydroepiandrosterone concentrations, and the ratio of total testosterone/cortisol and muscle force remained significantly lower in female seniors than in male seniors. Hematocrit and erythrocyte count in male seniors increased slightly but were significantly higher than in female seniors. Treatment resulted in significant increases in total and free testosterone concentrations and muscular force in men and women. The increase in free testosterone in women is thought to be due to the significant decline in sex hormone-binding globulin concentrations. The study affirms the ergogenic benefit of TA through enhanced muscle strength.

With the re-emergence of brucellosis in mainland China since the mid-1990s, an increasing threat to public health tends to become even more violent, advanced warning plays a pivotal role in the control of brucellosis. However, a model integrating the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with Error-Trend-Seasonal (ETS) methods remains unexplored in the epidemiological prediction. The hybrid ARIMA-ETS model based on discrete wavelet transform was hence constructed to assess the epidemics of human brucellosis from January 2004 to February 2018 in mainland China. The preferred hybrid model including the best-performing ARIMA method for approximation-forecasting and the best-fitting ETS approach for detail-forecasting is evidently superior to the standard ARIMA and ETS techniques in both three in-sample simulating and out-of-sample forecasting horizons in terms of the minimum performance indices of the root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean error rate and mean absolute percentage error. Whereafter, an ahead prediction from March to December in 2018 displays a dropping trend compared to the preceding years. But being still present, in various trends, in the present or future. This hybrid model can be highlighted in predicting the temporal trends of human brucellosis, which may act as the potential for far-reaching implications for prevention and control of this disease.