15. Some Policy Implications

Abstract

We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Aggregate forecasts are constructed by both employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. Using financial variables for country-specific forecasts tends to add little to the predictive ability of a simple AR model. However, they can help to predict EU aggregates. Furthermore, forecasts from pooling individual country models usually outperform those of the aggregate itself, particularly for EU25 grouping. This is particularly interesting from the perspective of the European Central Bank, who require forecasts of economic activity and inflation to formulate appropriate economic policy across the enlarged group.