2013 Wind Technologies Market Report

Abstract

Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States achieved record levels in 2012, motivated by the then-planned expiration of federal tax incentives at the end of 2012 and recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technology. At the same time, even with a short-term extension of federal tax incentives now in place, the U.S. wind power industry is facing uncertain times. It will take time to rebuild the project pipeline, ensuring a slow year for new capacity additions in 2013. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on industry growth expectations. In combination with global competition within the sector, these trends continue to impact the manufacturing supply chain. What these trends mean for the medium to longer term remains to be seen, dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions, although recent declines in the price of wind energy have boosted the prospects for future growth. Key findings from this year's Wind Technologies Market Report include: • Wind Power Additions Hit a New Record in 2012, with 13.1 GW of New Capacity Added in the United States and $25 Billion Invested. Wind power installations in 2012 were more than 90% higher than in 2011 and 30% greater than the previous record in 2009. Cumulative wind power capacity grew by 28% in 2012, bringing the total to 60 GW. • Wind Power Represented the Largest Source of U.S. Electric-Generating Capacity Additions in 2012. Wind power constituted 43% of all nameplate capacity additions in 2012, overtaking natural gas-fired generation as the leading source of new capacity. This follows the 5 previous years in which wind power represented between 25% and 43% of new U.S. electric generation capacity in each year.

Energy storage requirements to address wind energy variability

“…To understand the influence of the wind resource on the capacity factor, we may then consider the prevailing wind conditions for one specific location, Los Vientos, Texas. This is a TRG 5 location of wind speed range 6.9 to 11.1, average speed 7.5 m/s, and expected capacity factor 40.7%. Los Vientos, Texas, is the location of a 912 MW wind farm complex, including different units, I(1A), II(1B), III, IV, and V, of rated power 200, 202, 200, 200, and 110 MW, that were completed recently, between 2012 and 2016.…”

“…The best performing wind farm has an average power of 50% the rated power, and worst‐performing wind farm has an average power of 15% the rated power. The wind speed range for the TRG considered, mostly 5 to 7, is 6.9 to 11.1 to 5.4 to 8.3 m/s, the average speed is 7.5 to 6.2 m/s, and the expected capacity factor is 40.7% to 30.8%. The actual energy production differs between wind farms, even if sharing about the same prevailing wind speed conditions and even with similar orography and turbines' relative location.…”

“…A more sophisticated statistics than the one in State Government of Victoria is proposed for the United States in Refs. . This statistic defines areas of wind energy resource, named techno‐resource group (TRG) areas.…”

IEA Wind Task 26. Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, the European Union, and the United States: 2007–2012

“…Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on mediumterm (after 2016) industry growth expectations, with federal tax incentives supporting near term growth through 2016. (Wiser and Bolinger, 2014), as well as near-and medium-term projections for 2015 and 2020, respectively (BNEF, 2014). 50 The United States does not have legally binding long-term targets for national wind power development.…”

“…At the end of 2014, RPS policies existed in 29 states and Washington D.C. An RPS is a requirement that a certain amount of electricity come from renewable sources. Given the rapid growth in renewable generation over the last decade, however, near-term incremental RPS demand is somewhat modest: existing laws are projected to drive average annual renewable energy additions of just 3-4 GW/yr between 2013 and 2025, only a portion of which will be from wind (Wiser and Bolinger 2014). Data on U.S. wind projects compiled by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) were used to investigate trends in U.S. wind plant technology, cost and performance.…”