2017 Hydropower Market Report

Rocio, Uria-Martinez,; Johnson, Megan; O’Connor, Patrick; Samu, Nicole; Witt, Adam M.; Battey, Hoyt; Welch, Timothy F; Bonnet, Marisol; Wagoner, Sarah

doi:10.2172/1513459

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

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“…The West Coast of the United States receives a majority of its precipitation during the cold season (from October to March). This precipitation supports the water requirements of approximately 15.7% of the nation's population (OECD 2018), generates approximately 52.6% of the domestic hydroelectricity (Uría-Martínez et al 2017), and waters approximately 21.7% of the country's irrigated farm land (Vilsack and Reilly 2013). Occasional extended wet or dry periods, which are strongly linked to the presence or absence of winter storms, threaten the area's ecological and economic security.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range

et al. 2018

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Precipitation variability significantly influences the heavily populated West Coast of the United States, raising the need for reliable predictions. We investigate the region’s short- to extended-range precipitation prediction skill using the hindcast database of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). The prediction skill–lead time relationship is evaluated, using both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores. Results show that the S2S models display advantageous deterministic skill at week 1. For week 2, prediction is useful for the best-performing model, with a Pearson correlation coefficient larger than 0.6. Beyond week 2, predictions generally provide little useful deterministic skill. Sources of extended-range predictability are investigated, focusing on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). We found that periods of heavy precipitation associated with ENSO are more predictable at the extended range period. During El Niño years, Southern California tends to receive more precipitation in late winter, and most models show better extended-range prediction skill. On the contrary, during La Niña years Oregon tends to receive more precipitation in winter, with most models showing better extended-range skill. We believe the excessive precipitation and improved extended-range prediction skill are caused by the meridional shift of baroclinic systems as modulated by ENSO. Through examining precipitation anomalies conditioned on the MJO, we verified that active MJO events systematically modulate the area’s precipitation distribution. Our results show that most models do not represent the MJO or its associated teleconnections, especially at phases 3–4. However, some models exhibit enhanced extended-range prediction skills under active MJO conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range

et al. 2018

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“…Changes in the capacity factor have a more limited impact on LCOS. Within the existing fleet of PSH plants, the number of unit service hours per year is roughly 2,500 on average, corresponding to 313 full days at 8 hours of discharge (Uria-Martinez et al, 2015). It is anticipated that m-PSH plants could on average achieve a similar level of performance.…”

Section: Lcos Sensitivitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The process of pumping water from a low elevation into a reservoir at a higher elevation and releasing that water through hydroelectric turbines back into a lower reservoir is an efficient and reliable means to store electrical energy. In the U.S. and globally, nearly all PSH facilities have capacity in excess of 100 MW with greater than 4 hours of storage, reflecting both the economies of scale in construction and equipment procurement available to large projects, and the market advantage of marginal energy storage (Deane et al, 2010;Uria-Martinez et al, 2015). The pace of PSH development in the U.S. slowed to a standstill over the past 25 years, largely the result of economic uncertainties in a deregulated electricity market, protracted siting and environmental constraints, and a continuous decline in natural gas prices (Yang & Jackson, 2011).…”

Section: Background and Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and Implications of a Predictive Cost Methodology for Modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) Projects in the United States

Witt

Chalise

Hadjerioua

et al. 2016

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“…The risk and severity of injury is also dependent on turbine type, design, and operations, which makes it difficult to apply inferences from one facility to another. Two of the most common turbine types are Francis and propeller type turbines (e.g., Kaplan) [7], with higher rates of mortality observed in Francis compared to propeller turbines [8,9]. Blade leading edge thickness and strike velocity are two important turbine blade characteristics; maximum runner velocity data are generally available, but blade thickness descriptions are more difficult to obtain as they are often considered proprietary by turbine manufacturers [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Within and Among Fish Species Differences in Simulated Turbine Blade Strike Mortality: Limits on the Use of Surrogacy for Untested Species

Saylor

Sterling

Bevelhimer

et al. 2020

Water

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Use of surrogacy remains a useful method for prioritizing research on representatives of at-risk groups of fishes, yet quantifiable evidence in support of its use is generally not available. Blade strike impact represents one of the most traumatic stressors experienced by fish during non-volitional movements through hydropower turbines. Here, we use data generated from laboratory trials on blade strike impact experiments to directly test use of surrogacy for salmonid and clupeid fishes. Results of logistic regression indicated that a -taxonomic (genus) variable was not a significant predictor of mortality among large rainbow trout and brook trout. Similar results were found for young-of-the-year shad species, but genus-level taxonomy was a significant predictor of mortality while species was not. Multivariate analysis of morphometric data showed that shad clustered together based on similarities in fish shape which was also closely associated with genus. Logistic regression including size as a major covariate suggested total fish length was not a significant predictor of mortality, yet dose–response data suggest differential susceptibility to lower strike velocities. We suggest that use of surrogacy among species is justifiable but should be avoided within a species since the effects of size remain unclear.

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2017 Hydropower Market Report

Cited by 25 publications

References 0 publications

Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range

Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range

Development and Implications of a Predictive Cost Methodology for Modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) Projects in the United States

Within and Among Fish Species Differences in Simulated Turbine Blade Strike Mortality: Limits on the Use of Surrogacy for Untested Species

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