2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Gray, Robert Hugh

doi:10.1080/0969160x.2012.720407

Cited by 3 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Later in the 1950's, several other countries started to adopt fossil-fuel-based economies. Since the 1990's China with 1.44 billion people and most recently India with 1.38 billion have been aggressively pursuing the fossil fuel dependent lifestyle of North America and Europe [37][38][39][40][41]. Since 1820 global per capita use of energy has quadrupled [23,42].…”

Section: Human Population Energy and Fossil Fuelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biofuels made from agricultural crops, vegetation residues from forest and rangelands, and algae may seem to be a solution for powering trucks, ships, and aircraft but they have several drawbacks. The challenges of conversion to biofuels for transportation include cost, scalability, energy profitability and environmental tradeoffs [13,15,33,41,48,54]. Basically, the amount of energy returned from production of most biofuels relative to energy inputs is too low for profitability [15,34].…”

Section: Transportation Bottlenecksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They also will impair grazing, wildlife and esthetic values over vast rangeland landscapes if they are used as major power sources for electrical grids [61]. Biofuels, in addition to causing a large reduction in cropland for food production, would contribute to soil erosion, soil nutrient depletion (especially phosphorus), and wildlife habitat loss if their production was expanded to a level that replaced fossil fuels as a primary world energy source [15,39,41,54,67,68].…”

Section: Environmental Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2020, the annual reduction in energy intensity was only 0.8% [73]. Potentially, energy efficiency improvements could reduce per capita electricity use in developed countries by 50% or more over the next 30 years [41,73,74]. Even though major improvements have occurred in energy efficiency over the past 30 years, the total US energy use has risen about 30% due to an increased number of households with more appliances and electronic products [75].…”

Section: Improving Energy Efficiency Through Taxation (Decoupling)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?

et al. 2022

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Our study evaluated the effectiveness of using eight pathways in combination for a complete to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2050. These pathways included renewable energy development; improving energy efficiency; increasing energy conservation; carbon taxes; more equitable balancing of human wellbeing and per capita energy use; cap and trade systems; carbon capture, utilization, and storage; and nuclear power development. We used the annual ‘British Petroleum statistical review of world energy 2021’ report as our primary database. Globally, fossil fuels, renewable (primarily hydro, wind and solar), nuclear energy accounted for 83%, 12.6%, and 6.3% of the total energy consumption in 2020. To achieve zero fossil fuel use by 2050, we found that renewable energy production will need to be increased by up to 6-fold or 8-fold if energy demand is held constant at, or increased 50% from, the 2020 energy demand level. Constraining 2050 world energy demand to a 25% increase over the 2020 level, improves the probability of achieving independence from fossil fuels. Improvements in energy efficiency need to accelerate beyond the current rate of ~1.5% per year. Aggressive application of energy conservation policies involving land use and taxation could potentially reduce world energy use by 10% or more by 2050. Our meta-analysis shows that the minimum level of per capita energy consumption that would allow 8 billion people to have a ‘Decent Living Standard’ is on average ~70 GJ per capita per year, which is 93% of the 2020 global average. Developed countries in temperate climates with high vehicle-dependency needed ~120 GJ per capita year−1, whereas equatorial countries with low vehicle-dependency needed 30 GJ per capita year−1. Our meta-analyses indicated replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy by 2050 may be possible but will require aggressive application of all eight pathways, major lifestyle changes in developed countries, and close cooperation among all countries.

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Section: Human Population Energy and Fossil Fuelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Transportation Bottlenecksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Environmental Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Improving Energy Efficiency Through Taxation (Decoupling)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?

et al. 2022

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“…Such a stabilization was obtained in Ref. [18], but only by relying on the Randers economic scenarios [26] and considering a quite optimistic estimation of the reductions introduced by the technological progress [27,28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors

Buendia-Hernandez

Bevia

Alvarez-Garcia

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis of modelled CO2 aviation emissions to changes in the model parameters, which is intended as a contribution to the understanding of the atmospheric composition stabilization issue. The two variable dynamic model incorporates the effects of the technological innovations on the emissions rate, the environmental feedback, and a non-linear control term on the passengers rate. The model parameters, estimated from different air traffic sources, are subject to considerable uncertainty. The stability analysis of Monte Carlo simulations revealed that, for certain values of the non-linear term parameter and depending on the type of flight, the passengers number at some equilibrium points exceeded its initial value, while the emissions level was below the initial corresponding one. The results of two global sensitivity analyses indicated that the influence of the non-linear term prevailed on the passengers number rate, followed distantly by the environmental feedback. For the emissions rate, the non-linear term contribution dominated, with the technological term influence placing second.

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Климат И Энергетика. Сценарии Энергетического Перехода И Изменения Глобальной Температуры На Основе Современных Технологий И Тенденций

Акаев¹,

Давыдова²

2022

iis

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Статья посвящена анализу климатических изменений и моделированию энергетического перехода на возобновляемые источники энергии. Современная климатическая ситуация характеризуется общим повышением средней глобальной температуры в результате чрезвычайно высокой концентрации углекислого газа (СО 2 ) в атмосфере, количество которого постоянно увеличивается и представляет угрозу для устойчивости глобальной экологической системы в целом. Принимая во внимание тот факт, что основная часть выбросов СО 2 приходится на энергопотребление (которое на протяжении всей истории переживало переходы от одного вида доминирующего энергоресурса к другому -от биомассы к углю, от угля к нефти и от нефти к природному газу), авторы анализируют возможности перехода к возобновляемым источникам энергии (ВИЭ), который, по прогнозам, произойдет во второй половине XXI в. Авторы проводят математическое моделирование предстоящего энергетического перехода с различными сценариями будущего топливно-энергетического баланса в XXI в. Для этого ученые разработали специализированную 1 Работа выполнена в рамках Программы развития Междисциплинарной научнообразовательной школы Московского университета «Математические методы анализа сложных систем» при финансовой поддержке РНФ (проект № 20-61-46004). Статья основана на главе 4 доклада российских ученых Римскому клубу «Переосмысливая пределы».

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2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?

A Global Assessment: Can Renewable Energy Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050?

Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors

Климат И Энергетика. Сценарии Энергетического Перехода И Изменения Глобальной Температуры На Основе Современных Технологий И Тенденций

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