235 Development of Evaluation Method of Fragility for Power Plant Equipment Based on Bayesian Analysis

Abstract

In the seismic design ofnuclear power plant ， it is recently considered to use probability method in additon to certainty method ． The latter method is to secure seismic safety of nuclear power plant by corroborating that ca 艮 culated stress ofequipment is lower than allowab 亘 e stress ofdesign criteria ． And the forrner method ， which is called Seismic Probability Safety Assessment ( Seismic PSA ) ，is to secure seism 重 c safety by corroborating that probability of reactor core failure is lower than a certain value ． In Seismic PSA ， it is important to estimate fragility ofequipment f ( ) r precise assessment ； therefore ， in this paper we dealt with a method using Bayesian Approach for generating a fragility curve and a design fragility curve from a multi − specimen test ． Key Words ：Seismic PSA ， Power Plant ， Fragility， Bayesian Analysis