2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

Abstract

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

Macro-Economic Cycles Related to Climate change in Dynastic China

“…More recently, the idea of climatic determinism is being revived, fueled to some extent by the recent development of high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions in many parts of the world. Numerous studies have tried to link climate change with various social aspects ranging from water supply and agricultural productivity (Lucero, 2002;Buckley et al, 2010), human health (McMichael, 2012), population migration (Zhang et al, 2011;Zielhofer et al, 2012;Han et al, 2014), social conflict Tol and Wagner, 2010), and particularly political or civilization collapse (Binford et al, 1997;deMenocal, 2001;Weiss and Bradley, 2001;Haug et al, 2003;Büntgen et al, 2011;Kennett et al, 2012;Walsh et al, 2014). Many studies convey the concept that climate change or extreme droughts constitute the main driver for a large number of cases of abrupt social/civilization collapse.…”

Geomorphological records of human activity reflected in fluvial sediments in the Carpathians and their foreland

“…During the Roman Period (1 st -4 th centuries AD) in particular, when beyond agriculture there occurred a deforestation of floodplains linked with the development of industry, river activity increased in southern Poland (Kalicki 1991, Dobrzańska, Kalicki 2004, Starkel 2005a. Observed in the Migration Period (5 th -6 th centuries AD) are a regression in agriculture, a reforestation and a simultaneous rise in precipitation (Büntgen et al 2011) linked with a greater frequency of floods, recorded in channel sediments bearing subfossil oak trunks , Krąpiec 1996, Starkel 2001, Starkel et al 2009). In turn, the period of the Early Middle Ages (8 th -10 th centuries AD) is characterised by a descent of settlements to the bottoms of river valleys (e.g.…”

A preliminary analysis of economic fluctuations and climate changes in China from BC 220 to AD 1910

“…In the cold period of AD 1840-1890, agricultural yields in China were reduced by 10-25 % compared with the relatively warm period of AD 1730-1770 (Gong et al 1996). Poor harvests during long-term cold periods had contributed to the large migration, great famine and Black Death, and 30 years' wars over the past two millennia in Europe (Büntgen et al 2011;Lamb 1995). Moreover, previous work has shown that low temperatures are also correlated with belowaverage population growth in China over the past millennia (Lee et al 2008).…”

“…Prolonged droughts can undermine the water supply and agricultural productivity; droughts have been repeatedly cited as a main driver for many cases of abrupt social/ civilization collapse (Haug et al 2003;deMenocal 2001;Kennett et al 2012;Weiss and Bradley 2001;Buckley et al 2010). Climate deterioration-induced socioeconomic crisis was notably observed in Europe (Büntgen et al 2011). During the Little Ice Age, food storage could not compensate for the loss caused by poor annual harvests; famine and plague caused large-scale depopulation, outmigration and farmland abandonment (Lamb 1995).…”