4. Economic Conditions and Violent Victimization Trends among Youth

National and Local Trends in Serious Violence, Firearm Victimization, and Homicide

“…To our knowledge, there have been relatively few studies to examine how national homicide, serious violence, and nonfatal gun use trends vary together over time. 1 Lauritsen et al (2013) compared these NCVS and SHR trends for different subgroups of youth aged 12 to 24 years for the period 1973-2005. They found a strong association over this period between homicide and nonfatal gun violence rates among young males, and that young males’ homicide rates were more strongly associated with changes in gun violence than with changes in serious violence overall.…”

“…In this article, we compare trends in nonlethal forms of serious violence, injury, nonlethal gun use, and homicide to examine the extent to which each of these potential changes may help inform our understanding of the recent increases in homicide. Such types of comparisons have been done before, though not for the most recent time period (e.g., Lauritsen, Gorislavsky, & Heimer, 2013), and they remain an important descriptive effort as each possibility suggests a different strategy for reducing homicide. Should homicide rates exhibit trends that are similar to those for other forms of serious violence and gun use in crime, it would suggest a shared set of influences that should be the focus of reducing both lethal and nonlethal violence.…”

Trends in Conflict

“…Lauritsen, Gorislavsky, and Heimer (2013, Figure 4.2) find that rates of gun violence and homicide largely paralleled one another through 2005 and that after the mid-1980s homicide rates grew faster than gun violence rates and fell more slowly, indicating increased lethality (see also Cook & Ludwig, 2006). Lauritsen et al further find that the relationship of gun violence to homicide was largely limited to males, implying differences in lethal intent by victim gender.…”

Violence and Economic Conditions in the United States, 1973-2011

“…Prior to the availability of data from the recession of 2007, a body of evidence had been emerging that showed that changes in macroeconomic conditions are associated with crime and violence (e.g., Arvanites & DeFina, 2006; Baumer, 2008; Gould, Weinberg, & Mustard, 2002; Lauritsen, Gorislavsky, & Heimer, 2013; Lauritsen & Heimer, 2010; Messner, Raffalovich, & McMillan, 2001; Raphael & Winter-Ebmer, 2001; Rosenfeld, 2009; Rosenfeld & Fornango, 2007). Clearly, the recent declines in violence found in the UCR and the NCVS suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and violence cannot be simple or direct.…”

“…These analyses showed that homicide increases were most dramatic and concentrated among young, Black males, a finding that was subsequently determined to be likely the result of the arming of young men involved in crack cocaine markets. In addition, examinations of nonlethal violence rates disaggregated by victim subgroup characteristics found that the economic downturns of the 1970s and 1980s were associated with higher rates of serious violent victimization among minority males, in part because minority subgroups were more likely to be affected by such changes in the economy than were non-Latino White males (Lauritsen & Heimer, 2010; Lauritsen et al, 2013). These relationships between year-to-year changes in the economy and violence were found to be masked in the national violence rates because such rates were dominated by the experiences of the majority group.…”