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Butter, F.A.G. den; Dijken, S. van

doi:10.1023/a:1008290714581

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

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“…Les oxazolines sont, parmi les heterocycles, lea composes qui ont donne lieu au plus grand nomhre d'applications dane des domaines auesi varies que la photographie ( l ) , lee anticorrosifs ( 2 ) , les polymeres ( 3 1 , lea detergents ( 4 ) , les adhesifs ( 5 ) , ainsi que les produits pharmaceutiques (6,7).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Action des Organométalliques sur les Iminoéthers: Nouvelle Voie D'Accès Aux Oxazolines

Bellassoued¹,

Gaudemar²,

Hajjem

et al. 1986

Bulletin des Soc Chimique

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Section: Introductionunclassified

Action des Organométalliques sur les Iminoéthers: Nouvelle Voie D'Accès Aux Oxazolines

Bellassoued¹,

Gaudemar²,

Hajjem

et al. 1986

Bulletin des Soc Chimique

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An aggregate model for the European Union

Bagnai¹,

Carlucci²

2003

Economic Modelling

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Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts

Butter

Jansen²

2013

Applied Financial Economics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. (0)10 408 9031 Most TI discussion papers can be downloaded at http://www.tinbergen.nl. Terms of use: Documents in This version 27 October 2008Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of longterm interest rate forecasts Frank A.G. den Butter and Pieter W. Jansen * Abstract This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for five major OECD countries, namely United States, Germany, United Kingdom, The Netherlands and Japan, the other forecasting approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon. On a 12 month forecast horizon the random walk model can be outperformed by a model that combines economic data and expert forecasts. Here several methods of combination are considered: equal weights, optimized weights and weights based on forecast error. It appears that the additional information contents of the structural models and expert knowledge is only relevant for forecasting 12 months ahead.

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Untitled

Cited by 5 publications

References 11 publications

Action des Organométalliques sur les Iminoéthers: Nouvelle Voie D'Accès Aux Oxazolines

Action des Organométalliques sur les Iminoéthers: Nouvelle Voie D'Accès Aux Oxazolines

An aggregate model for the European Union

Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts

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