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doi:10.22498/pages.26.1

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…In both scenarios, the land-sea mask and lake areas are for the present day. the development of LULC scenarios (Gaillard et al, 2018). LULC changes are taken into account in climate model simulations currently being made in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the historic period and the future scenario runs (Eyring et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

et al. 2020

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“…The spatial extent and pattern of wood distribution have a great influence on the microclimate, pedogenesis and hydrology, including soil erosion of both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Diodato and Bellocchi, 2008b;Diodato et al, 2017), linking up to regional and global climatic aspects (Gaillard et al, 2018;Morin et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial probability modelling of forest productivity indicator in Italy

Diodato

Bellocchi

2020

Ecological Indicators

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The prediction of forest productivity is essential for sustainable forest management, particularly in countries, like Italy, where forest is an important part of many protected areas. A spatial predictive probability model for forest productivity rates in Italy was developed over the period 1961-1990, based on 135 annually-resolved records of site productivity and auxiliary variables measured at 219 stations. Our analysis shows that the probability of finding high (> 7.3 m 3 ha −1 yr −1) and low (< 5.8 m 3 ha −1 yr −1) productivity rates changes across different regions of Italy. The generated spatial patterns contribute to a better understanding of the factors structuring the distribution of forest productivity in Italy because they reflect the dependence of temperature and water availability conditions on the latitudinal and altitudinal location of the study areas. We observed that the temperature control dominates forest productivity at high elevations and latitudes, whereas low-elevation sites in central and southern Italy are more sensitive to water availability. The proposed spatial probability modelling should be further assessed for its possible incorporation into forest management plans.

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“…Although the record of LULC is likely to be patchy and incomplete, because of preservation and sampling issues, systematic use of archaeological data is one important way to improve current LULC scenarios. The goal of the Past Global Change (PAGES, http://www.pages-igbp.org/) LandCover6K working group (http://pastglobalchanges.org/ini/wg/landcover6k/intro) is to develop a rigorous and robust approach to provide data and data products that can be used to inform reconstructions of LULC (Gaillard et al, 2018). In this paper, we present a protocol to use archaeological data to improve global LULC reconstructions for the Holocene.…”

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confidence: 99%

Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments

Harrison¹,

Gaillard²,

Stocker³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, we propose methods to evaluate the revised scenarios by using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and of climate. A further test involves carbon-cycle simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice-core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, we outline a protocol for using the improved LULC reconstructions in palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in order to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.

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Untitled

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

Spatial probability modelling of forest productivity indicator in Italy

Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments

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