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Groisman, P. Y.; Karl, Thomas R.; Easterling, David R.; Knight, Richard W.; Jamason, P.; Hennessy, Kevin; Suppiah, Ramasamy; Page, Cher M.; Wibig, Joanna; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Razuvaev, V. N.; Douglas, Arthur V.; Førland, Eirik J.; Zhai, Panmao

doi:10.1023/a:1005432803188

Cited by 501 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 0 publications

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“…The first method is based on the actual rainfall amounts. For example, a ''heavy'' rainfall climatology is constructed as daily precipitation exceeding 50.8 mm (2 inches) and a ''very heavy'' rainfall climatology exceeds 101.6 mm (4 inches) (Groisman et al 1999). A second way is to use specific thresholds such as the 95th and 99th percentiles of precipitation frequency distribution for heavy and very heavy events, respectively.…”

Section: Observed Precipitation Statistics a Definition Of Heavy Prementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, there is concern that anthropogenic global warming could potentially increase the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (Groisman et al 2005;Palmer and Räisänen 2002;Kunkel et al 2003). Such an increase, which has already been seen over the late twentieth century, would have substantial implications for public safety, water resource management, and other significant societal issues.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Analogue Approach to Identify Heavy Precipitation Events: Evaluation and Application to CMIP5 Climate Models in the United States

Gao

Schlosser

Xie³

et al. 2014

Journal of Climate

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An analogue method is presented to detect the occurrence of heavy precipitation events without relying on modeled precipitation. The approach is based on using composites to identify distinct large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with widespread heavy precipitation events across local scales. These composites, exemplified in the south-central, midwestern, and western United States, are derived through the analysis of 27-yr (1979-2005) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded station data and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Circulation features and moisture plumes associated with heavy precipitation events are examined. The analogues are evaluated against the relevant daily meteorological fields from the MERRA reanalysis and achieve a success rate of around 80% in detecting observed heavy events within one or two days. The method also captures the observed interannual variations of seasonal heavy events with higher correlation and smaller RMSE than MERRA precipitation. When applied to the same 27-yr twentieth-century climate model simulations from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the analogue method produces a more consistent and less uncertain number of seasonal heavy precipitation events with observation as opposed to using model-simulated precipitation. The analogue method also performs better than model-based precipitation in characterizing the statistics (minimum, lower and upper quartile, median, and maximum) of year-to-year seasonal heavy precipitation days. These results indicate the capability of CMIP5 models to realistically simulate large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with widespread local-scale heavy precipitation events with a credible frequency. Overall, the presented analyses highlight the improved diagnoses of the analogue method against an evaluation that considers modeled precipitation alone to assess heavy precipitation frequency.

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Section: Observed Precipitation Statistics a Definition Of Heavy Prementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analogue Approach to Identify Heavy Precipitation Events: Evaluation and Application to CMIP5 Climate Models in the United States

Gao

Schlosser

Xie³

et al. 2014

Journal of Climate

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“…Additional studies have demonstrated changes in ecological interactions and potential changes in ecosystem function that are associated with climate change (3,4). Increased unpredictability and variability in regional climates, particularly with regard to precipitation, should be exceptionally disruptive: models of climate change have predicted greater frequency and duration of droughts in some areas (5,6), increased periods of high precipitation in others (6,7), and a widespread increase in the frequency of extreme weather events (8,9). Relatively few studies have addressed the potential effects of increased variation in precipitation or temperature on the relationships within biotic communities (10,11), but given the strong dependence of many organisms on particular climatic signals and precipitation levels, it is likely that such effects will be profound.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming

Stireman

Dyer²,

Janzen³

et al. 2005

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

303

253

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Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.climate change ͉ herbivore ͉ outbreak ͉ parasitoid ͉ top-down

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“…It has also been observed that the variability of extreme climate events shows strong regional features [6] [8]. For instances, Groisman [9] detected an increase in heavy precipitation (>25.4 mm) in Western Norway. An increasing trend was detected by Bruneith [10] for Italy during the 20th century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability and Trends of Daily Heavy Rainfall Events over Niger River Basin Development Authority Area in Nigeria

Babatolu¹,

Akinnubi²,

Folagimi³

et al. 2014

AJCC

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Using 70 years of daily rainfall records in eight stations, an analysis of variability and trends of daily heavy rainfall events over Niger River Basin Development Authority Area was carried out by using Standardized Anomaly Index and Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient. Significant temporal variability on interannual and decadal time-scales was observed in the frequency of heavy rainfall events and annual heavy rainfall amount. Both the annual heavy rainfall amount and frequency of heavy rainfall events demonstrated no pronounced temporal decreasing or increasing trend. However, more recent data records from 1981 onwards revealed an increasing trend. Thus, evidence of a temporal change is apparent in heavy rainfall events in the last three decades in sympathy with global warming.

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Cited by 501 publications

References 0 publications

An Analogue Approach to Identify Heavy Precipitation Events: Evaluation and Application to CMIP5 Climate Models in the United States

An Analogue Approach to Identify Heavy Precipitation Events: Evaluation and Application to CMIP5 Climate Models in the United States

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming

Variability and Trends of Daily Heavy Rainfall Events over Niger River Basin Development Authority Area in Nigeria

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