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Abstract

Balance of Payments (BOP). Utilising a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the study reveals a positive impact of oil price shocks on RGDP, indication economic expansion during global crude oil price and contraction during decline, such as observed in the 2015 recession. Variance decomposition analysis demonstrate the variability contributions of oil price, exchange rate, and BOP to RGDP, emphasizing the significant role of the oil sector in Nigeria's economic dynamics Additionally, Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Tests reveals the directional causality between oil price and the key variables, emphasizing their substantial role in shaping economic and trade dynamics. accelerated economic diversification, investment in other sectors beyond oil, fostering export-led growth, building foreign exchange reserves to reduce the economic vulnerability to fluctuation in global oil prices.