A 140,000-year continental climate reconstruction from two European pollen records

Guiot, Joël; Pons, A.; Beaulieu, J.‐L. de; Reille, Maurice

doi:10.1038/338309a0

Cited by 445 publications

(217 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…500 km south of Amsterdam at an altitude of ca. 350 m (Guiot et al, 1989). The mean MAAT estimate obtained in that study is used here as an absolute maximum scenario for the Weichselian glaciation in northwestern Europe given its location.…”

Section: Upper Boundary Condition: Temperature Evolution Of a Future mentioning

confidence: 99%

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Govaerts

Beerten

Veen³

2016

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The Rupelian clay in the Netherlands is currently the subject of a feasibility study with respect to the storage of radioactive waste in the Netherlands (OPERA-project). Many features need to be considered in the assessment of the long-term evolution of the natural environment surrounding a geological waste disposal facility. One of these is permafrost development as it may have an impact on various components of the disposal system, including the natural environment (hydrogeology), the natural barrier (clay) and the engineered barrier. Determining how deep permafrost might develop in the future is desirable in order to properly address the possible impact on the various components. It is expected that periglacial conditions will reappear at some point during the next several hundred thousands of years, a typical time frame considered in geological waste disposal feasibility studies. In this study, the Weichselian glaciation is used as an analogue for future permafrost development. Permafrost depth modelling using a best estimate temperature curve of the Weichselian indicates that permafrost would reach depths between 155 and 195 m. Without imposing a climatic gradient over the country, deepest permafrost is expected in the south due to the lower geothermal heat flux and higher average sand content of the post-Rupelian overburden. Accounting for various sources of uncertainty, such as type and impact of vegetation, snow cover, surface temperature gradients across the country, possible errors in palaeoclimate reconstructions, porosity, lithology and geothermal heat flux, stochastic calculations point out that permafrost depth during the coldest stages of a glacial cycle such as the Weichselian, for any location in the Netherlands, would be 130-210 m at the 2σ level. In any case, permafrost would not reach depths greater than 270 m. The most sensitive parameters in permafrost development are the mean annual air temperatures and porosity, while the geothermal heat flux is the crucial parameter in permafrost degradation once temperatures start rising again.

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Section: Upper Boundary Condition: Temperature Evolution Of a Future mentioning

confidence: 99%

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Govaerts

Beerten

Veen³

2016

The Cryosphere

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“…In the best-studied European sequence of Eemian diatomaceous gyttja at La Grande Pile (Woillard, 1978;Guiot et al, 1989;Seret et al, 1992;de Beaulieu and Reille, 1992a;Pons et al, 1992;Kukla et al, 2002b), the forest episode was labeled the Lure interglacial (Seret et al, 1990). Here the closed forest, which shows the typical Eemian vegetational succession, was probably established before 126,000 yr B.P.…”

Section: Pollen Records In Lake Sedimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Last Interglacial Climates

Kukla¹,

et al. 2002

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The last interglacial, commonly understood as an interval with climate as warm or warmer than today, is represented by marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, which is a proxy record of low global ice volume and high sea level. It is arbitrarily dated to begin at approximately 130,000 yr B.P. and end at 116,000 yr B.P. with the onset of the early glacial unit MIS 5d. The age of the stage is determined by correlation to uranium-thorium dates of raised coral reefs. The most detailed proxy record of interglacial climate is found in the Vostok ice core where the temperature reached current levels 132,000 yr ago and continued rising for another two millennia. Approximately 127,000 yr ago the Eemian mixed forests were established in Europe. They developed through a characteristic succession of tree species, probably surviving well into the early glacial stage in southern parts of Europe.

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“…Bartlein & Whitlock 1993;Cheddadi et al 1998a;Kerwin et al 2004;Nakagawa et al 2002;Sawada et al 2004;Peryon et al 2005;Ortu et al 2006Ortu et al , 2008Ortu et al , 2010Feurdean et al 2008aFeurdean et al , 2008bBordon et al 2009;. MAT has been extended by Guiot (1990), Guiot et al (1989;1992), and Cheddadi et al (1998b) to reconstruct several climatic variables from pollen assemblages for the last glacial-interglacial cycle using so-called 'palaeobioclimatic operators' as weights to emphasise preferentially the climatic signal within fossil pollen data (see below).…”

Section: The Assemblage Approach Basic Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Birks

2011

TOECOLJ

343

284

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Abstract:The importance of reconstructing past environments quantitatively in palaeoecology is reviewed by showing that many ecological questions asked of palaeoecological data commonly involve the reconstructions of past environment. Three basic approaches to reconstructing past climate from palaeoecological data are outlined and discussed in terms of their assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses. These approaches are the indicator-species approach involving bioclimateenvelope modelling; the assemblage approach involving modern analogue techniques and response surfaces; and the multivariate calibration-function approach. Topics common to all approaches are reviewed -presentation and interpretation, evaluation and validation, comparison, and general limitations of climate reconstructions. Challenges and possible future developments are presented and the potential future role of quantitative climate reconstructions in palaeoecology is summarised.

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A 140,000-year continental climate reconstruction from two European pollen records

Cited by 445 publications

References 14 publications

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Last Interglacial Climates

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

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