A 20-Year Analysis of the Dynamics and Driving Factors of Grassland Desertification in Xilingol, China

Abstract

Grassland desertification stands as an ecological concern globally. It is crucial for desertification prevention and control to comprehend the variation in area and severity of desertified grassland (DGL), clarify the intensities of conversion among DGLs of different desertification levels, and explore the spatial and temporal driving factors of desertification. In this study, a Desertification Difference Index (DDI) model was constructed based on albedo-EVI to extract desertification information. Subsequently, intensity analysis, the Geo-detector model, and correlation analysis were applied to analyze the dynamics and driving factors of desertification. The results showed the following: (1) Spatially, the DGL in Xilingol exhibited a zonal distribution. Temporally, the degree of DGL decreased, with the proportion of severely and moderately desertified areas decreasing from 51.77% in 2000 to 37.23% in 2020, while the proportion of nondesertified and healthy areas increased from 17.85% in 2000 to 37.40% in 2020; (2) Transition intensities among different desertification levels were more intense during 2000–2012, stabilizing during 2012–2020; (3) Meteorological factors and soil conditions primarily drive the spatial distribution of DDI, with evapotranspiration exhibiting the most significant influence (q-value of 0.83), while human activities dominate interannual DDI variations. This study provides insights into the conversion patterns among different desertification levels and the divergent driving forces shaping desertification in both spatial and temporal dimensions in Xilingol.