A 256‐year‐long precipitation reconstruction for northern Kyrgyzstan based on tree‐ring width

Abstract

In this study, 85 tree cores from 45 Schrenk spruces (Picea schrenkiana) were used to establish a regional tree‐ring chronology. A 256‐year pJune–May precipitation (where p denotes a month from the previous year) for northern Kyrgyzstan in central Asia was reconstructed using this newly developed chronology. The tree‐ring‐based precipitation reconstruction tracks the observed data well (r = .622, p < .0001, n = 105). Spatial correlation proved that the reconstructed precipitation series contains climatic signals representative of a larger area, including eastern Kyrgyzstan and parts of Kazakhstan. A comparison between the newly reconstructed precipitation series and four tree‐ring‐based precipitation reconstructions for the surrounding areas reveals similar variations, particularly in the high‐frequency domain. Furthermore, this reconstructed precipitation series matches nine flood (1785, 1786, 1792, 1952, 1953, 1970, 1971, 1973, and 2000) and four drought (1917, 1919, 1927, and 1944) events noted in the historical documents and captures a dry decade that occurred in the 1910s in central Asia.

A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan

“…Rainfall increased during this time, which increased soil moisture and further encouraged the production of cambium cells (Liu et al, 2011). Similar climate responses for the tree species in this study were also reported in northern Kyrgyzstan (Zhang et al, 2019), southern…”

“…According to the results of this research, NAO and ENSO are the primary processes 230 responsible for high-altitude mass balance shifts in the Tuyuksu Glacier. of glacial oscillations are temperature, precipitation and regional climatic inputs (Zhang et al, 2019).…”

“…Numerous papers have reported rapid glacier melt worldwide resulting from ongoing global warming, 35 the effects of which are particularly obvious in mountainous areas, especially in Central Asia, where temperatures have recently been at a high level (Xu et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2019). Continuous glacier melt will have a significant impact on Central Asia's freshwater supplies, particularly in high-emission scenarios (Huss and Hock, 2018;Li et al, 2019;Li et al, 2020).…”

“…Few studies have hitherto utilized tree rings to analyse the Tuyuksu Glacier's mass balance, although it is worth noting that Zhang et al (2019) employed annual ring isotopic chronology to estimate the Tuyuksu Glacier's mass balance variations from 1849 to 2014, finding that after 1968, melting was taking place without interruption and faster than at any time before.…”

“…290 Further, we contrasted our reconstruction (figure 9a) with the earlier sequence of reconstructions of this glacier's mass balance made by Zhang et al (2019) (figure 9b). The results of the comparison showed 295 that the two reconstructed sequences were matched to a high degree (r = 0.60, p < 0.01, 1850-2015).…”