Performance studies, linking ATM switch capabilities to physical limitations imposed by integrated circuit technology, have been scarce. This paper explores trends in circuit capabilities, and makes projections toward the 0.25-m technologies that will be available to all switch designers in the year 2000. The limits imposed by circuit technology are applied to shared buffer ATM switches. We determine requirements and physical limits for buffer capacity, buffer throughput, chip I/O throughput, and power dissipation. As a result, we are able to project chip counts, aggregate switch throughputs, and switch dimensions. As well, performance capabilities of singlechip shared buffer switches are estimated. A single-chip shared buffer switch implemented in 0.25-m technology will be capable of an aggregate throughput of 1.3 Tb/s, will accomplish almost arbitrarily low cell loss rates for bursty traffic, and may be integrated together with translation tables supporting hundreds of connections per port.