A 449 year warm season temperature reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its relation to solar activity

Abstract

There is a close relationship between solar activity and the Earth's surface temperature, but this relationship has weakened with recent global warming. To better understand this puzzle, temperature records need to be extended, and the relationship between long-term variation in temperature and solar activity needs to be examined. In this study, we reconstruct April-September temperature variation back to 1563 using tree ring maximum late wood density (MXD) data from Balfour spruce in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). Spatial correlation analysis indicates that our reconstruction is representative of temperature variability over the large-scale TP. On the 22 year time scale, the reconstructed April-September temperature corresponds generally to solar activity over the past three centuries. Spectral analyses also indicate that the significant periodicities of~11 years, 54 years, and 204 years observed in the MXD chronology correspond to the Schwabe cycle, the fourth harmonic of the Suess cycle, and the Suess solar cycle, respectively. However, disparities between temperature change and solar activity are identified in two periods, the 1880s-1900s and the 1980s-present. These results suggest that solar forcing is the critical driver for long-term temperature variability in the TP, but other factors may uncouple surface temperature and solar activity in some periods. One possible cause of the weak effect of solar activity on temperature during the 1880s-1900s is internal climate variability, while human-activity-induced greenhouse gas emissions have likely superseded solar forcing as the major driver of the rapid warming observed since the 1980s.

Weakening of annual temperature cycle over the Tibetan Plateau since the 1870s

“…The climatic signals are strongest in the regional composite chronologies, including a maximum response to November–February temperature in TRW and to July–September temperature in MXD. These seasonal patterns are consistent with previous studies18192022232425.…”

“…Cell formation of high-elevation Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana trees in the southeastern part of the TP >4,000 m asl is one of these sites controlled by winter temperatures181920, whereas cell wall thickening is primarily driven by late summer warmth22232425. Low winter temperatures have been demonstrated to effectively reduce radial growth rates by the interaction between snow cover and fine root mortality2126272829.…”

Tree-ring density inferred late summer temperature variability over the past three centuries in the Gaoligong Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

“…The spectral peaks of 11.0 and 12.2 years were approximately equivalent to the cycle of solar activity which can affect the temperature variations on the earth as well as the TP. Tree-ring data from Sygera Mountain (Wang and Zhang, 2011) and Zuogong (Duan and Zhang, 2014), southeastern TP also displayed a cycle of about 11 years, indicating a possible effect of solar activity on tree growth through influencing temperature variations. The multi-decadal variability at spectral peaks of 27.5 and 59.8 years may correspond to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Mantua et al, 1997).…”

Recent warming evidence inferred from a tree-ring-based winter-half year minimum temperature reconstruction in northwestern Yichang, South Central China, and its relation to the large-scale circulation anomalies

“…In the existing researches mainly focused on spring-summer (Liang et al 2008;Cai et al 2010Chen et al 2013;Duan and Zhang 2014;Li et al 2015) and annual temperature reconstructions (Fan et al 2008;Li et al 2014), the winter-time (hereafter refers to different month combinations from previous September to current May) temperature variations are rarely reported (Zhu et al 2009;Gou et al 2008;Liu et al 2009aLiu et al , 2009b. It is believed that winter-half year temperature (October-April) was closely related with the grain yield during the last two millennia in China (Yin et al 2014).…”