A 576‐Year Weber River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree Rings for Water Resource Risk Assessment in the Wasatch Front, Utah

Bekker, Matthew F.; DeRose, R. Justin; Buckley, Brendan M.; Kjelgren, Roger; Gill, Nathan S.

doi:10.1111/jawr.12191

Cited by 31 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…However, some features of streamflow variability that were captured in previous catchment‐specific studies are not detectable in the analysis presented here as only the first PC of each cluster was examined in detail. These include, as examples: reconstructions of drought in the 1770s in the Rio Grande [ Woodhouse et al ., ] that are not detected in the first PC of cluster 1; an extended drought period early 1700s in the Weber River, Utah [ Bekker et al ., ], is not featured in cluster 6; and a pluvial at the start of the 1600s in the Colorado River Basin [ Gray et al ., ] that does not feature prominently in cluster 6. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow

Lall

Sun

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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The development of paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions in the conterminous United States (CONUS) has provided water resource managers with improved insights into multidecadal and centennial scale variability that cannot be reliably detected using shorter instrumental records. Paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions have largely focused on individual catchments limiting the ability to quantify variability across the CONUS. The Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a spatially and temporally complete 555 year long paleoclimate record of summer drought across the CONUS, provides an opportunity to reconstruct and characterize streamflow variability at a continental scale. We explore the validity of the first paleoreconstructions of streamflow that span the CONUS informed by the LBDA targeting a set of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow sites. The reconstructions are skillful under cross validation across most of the country, but the variance explained is generally low. Spatial and temporal structures of streamflow variability are analyzed using hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis, and wavelet analyses. Nine spatially coherent clusters are identified. The reconstructions show signals of contemporary droughts such as the Dust Bowl (1930s) and 1950s droughts. Decadal‐scale variability was detected in the late 1900s in the western U.S., however, similar modes of temporal variability were rarely present prior to the 1950s. The twentieth century featured longer wet spells and shorter dry spells compared with the preceding 450 years. Streamflows in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast are negatively correlated with the central U.S. suggesting the potential to mitigate some drought impacts by balancing economic activities and insurance pools across these regions during major droughts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow

Lall

Sun

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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“…In other cases, the opposite was observed (Woodhouse et al, 2006;Littell et al, 2016). Although varying in details, these studies-and many others (e.g., Maxwell et al, 2011;Bekker et al, 2014;Razavi et al, 2015)-came to the consensus that reconstructed streamflow data provide more understanding about streamflow variability than do instrumental data alone. Such added understanding is being transformed into water management practice in the U.S. (Meko and Woodhouse, 2011) and Canada .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

A linear dynamical systems approach to streamflow reconstruction reveals history of regime shifts in northern Thailand

Nguyen¹,

Galelli²

2017

Preprint

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Key points• The state variable reveals regime-like behavior in the catchment history• The linear dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression • The model can generate stochastic replicates of both streamflow and catchment state time series ABSTRACT Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleo-climatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record-the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas-to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores increase by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history-e.g., regime-like behavior-thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

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“…These chronologies were developed for the species P. menziesii, P. edulis, P. ponderosa, Juniperus scopulorum, and J. osteosperma, and have been used in reconstructions of streamflow for the Logan River [25] and Weber River [16], and of Great Salt Lake (GSL) water level [34]. The WADR chronologies in particular provided added sample depth for northern Utah, where both FIA samples and ITRDB samples were sparse ( Figure 1).…”

Section: Tree-ring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, a relatively short period of instrumental record (starting approximately in 1930) in the Intermountain West limits our understanding of snowpack variability. Fortunately, in the western U.S. tree-ring data have been used to create a broad range of climate reconstructions including precipitation (e.g., [11,12]), temperature (e.g., [13]), and streamflow (e.g., [14][15][16]), as well as snowpack for parts of the Rocky Mountains [17][18][19][20], and could be employed for high resolution reconstructions of SWE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, chronologies are extremely time-consuming and costprohibitive to develop, thus alternative data are also highly desirable. As has been noted in several studies [16,24,25] there are large gaps in the spatial coverage of publicly available tree-ring chronologies (International Tree-Ring Data Bank, ITRDB). Some of the largest gaps are over central and northern Utah, and southeastern Idaho.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Reconstruction for Utah Using Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data

Barandiaran

Wang

DeRose

2017

Water

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Snowpack observations in the Intermountain West are sparse and short, making them difficult for use in depicting past variability and extremes. This study presents a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the period of 1850-1989 using increment cores collected by the U.S. Forest Service, Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA). In the state of Utah, SWE was reconstructed for 38 snow course locations using a combination of standardized tree-ring indices derived from both FIA increment cores and publicly available tree-ring chronologies. These individual reconstructions were then interpolated to a 4-km grid using an objective analysis with elevation correction to create an SWE product. The results showed a significant correlation with observed SWE as well as good correspondence to regional tree-ring-based drought reconstructions. Diagnostic analysis showed statewide coherent climate variability on inter-annual and inter-decadal time-scales, with added geographical details that would not be possible using courser pre-instrumental proxy datasets. This SWE reconstruction provides water resource managers and forecasters with better spatial resolution to examine past variability in snowpack, which will be important as future hydroclimatic variability is amplified by climate change.

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A 576‐Year Weber River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree Rings for Water Resource Risk Assessment in the Wasatch Front, Utah

Cited by 31 publications

References 45 publications

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow

A linear dynamical systems approach to streamflow reconstruction reveals history of regime shifts in northern Thailand

Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Reconstruction for Utah Using Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data

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