A Bayesian Methodology Applied to the Estimation of Earthquake Recurrence Parameters for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Keller, Merlin; Pasanisi, Alberto; Marcilhac, Marine; Yalamas, Thierry; Secanell, Ramon; Senfaute, Gloria

doi:10.1002/qre.1735

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…maximum magnitude M max ), which may come from seismic catalogues and/or geometrical constraints. Since λ i (M j ) is assessed jointly for all magnitude levels, it is theoretically possible to consider the statistical dependency of the distribution parameters (Bommer & Scherbaum 2008;Keller et al 2014). In addition, given the potential impact on SPTHA of the tails of the magnitude-frequency distributions, an important effort should be put for an operational assessment to constrain the rates of large events (e.g.…”

Section: Step 1: Development Of the Etmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several possible methods may be adopted to assess the rates λ(M j ): classical or Bayesian joint assessments of the parameters of the frequency-size distribution (e.g. Keller et al 2014); separated assessments of mean annual rates of earthquakes and of the parameters of a Pareto distribution (e.g. Kagan 2003).…”

Section: Step 1: the Event Tree For Exploring Uncertainties On Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

Selva¹,

et al. 2016

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We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

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Section: Step 1: Development Of the Etmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Step 1: the Event Tree For Exploring Uncertainties On Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

Selva¹,

et al. 2016

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“…To estimate these parameters, i.e., the cumulative annual rate of events (λ), the b-value, and the corner magnitude, in a catalogue with a time-varying magnitude of completeness, we used the method proposed by Taroni and Selva (2021). This approach couples the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) proposed by Weichert (1980) and adapted for the tapered GR, with a Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) computation to properly explore and estimate the uncertainty associated with the parameters, allowing for a joint evaluation of potentially correlated parameters (Keller et al, 2014). The smallest explored magnitude (the minimum among completeness levels) is magnitude M w = 1.0.…”

Section: Magnitude-frequency Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Seismicity of Ischia Island, Italy: An Integrated Earthquake Catalogue From 8th Century BC to 2019 and Its Statistical Properties

et al. 2021

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Ischia is a densely inhabited and touristic volcanic island located in the northern sector of the Gulf of Naples (Italy). In 2017, the Mw 3.9 Casamicciola earthquake occurred after more than one century of seismic quiescence characterized only by minor seismicity, which followed a century with three destructive earthquakes (in 1828, 1881, and 1883). These events, despite their moderate magnitude (Mw < 5.5), lead to dreadful effects on buildings and population. However, an integrated catalogue systematically covering historical and instrumental seismicity of Ischia has been still lacking since many years. Here, we review and systematically re-analyse all the available data on the historical and instrumental seismicity, to build an integrated earthquake catalogue for Ischia with a robust characterization of existing uncertainties. Supported by new or updated macroseismic datasets, we significantly enriched existing catalogues, as the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue (CPTI15) that, with this analysis, passed from 12 to 57 earthquakes with macroseismic parametrization. We also extended back by 6 years the coverage of the instrumental catalogue, homogenizing the estimated seismic parameters. The obtained catalogue will not only represent a solid base for future local hazard quantifications, but also it provides the unique opportunity of characterizing the evolution of the Ischia seismicity over centuries. To this end, we analyse the spatial, temporal, and magnitude distributions of Ischia seismicity, revealing for example that, also in the present long-lasting period of volcanic quiescence, is significantly non-stationary and characterized by a b-value larger than 1.

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“…This approach is qualitative and does not quantify the performance of the SSM with respect to the past seismicity. Keller et al (2014Keller et al ( , 2019 adopt a Bayesian approach based on the Importance Sampling technique (e.g. Kass and Raftery 1995) to estimate the recurrence parameters, i.e.…”

Section: Usnrc 2012mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian validation of the seismic source models using the Wylfa Newydd site in the UK as a case study

Mosca

Baptie

Villani

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, the development of the seismic source characterization, especially the geometry of the seismic source models (SSMs), is controversial because it often relies on expert judgment with different interpretations of the available data from seismology, tectonics, and geology. Based on the same input datasets, different teams of experts may derive different SSMs. In this context, the verification of the models through the comparison against a set of observations is a crucial step. We present a statistical tool to compare the SSMs with the observed seismicity and rank these SSMs based on their ability to replicate the past seismicity. We simulate many synthetic catalogues derived from candidate SSMs and compare them with the observed catalogue of mainshocks using the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm to select those that fit the observed catalogue. The candidate SSMs are then expressed by a probability density function (pdf) using the set of synthetic catalogues accepted by the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm and the Bayesian inference. To help practitioners in earthquake and civil engineering understand how this tool works in practice, the proposed approach is applied to a proposed new nuclear site in the United Kingdom, Wylfa Newydd.

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A Bayesian Methodology Applied to the Estimation of Earthquake Recurrence Parameters for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Cited by 19 publications

References 18 publications

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

The Seismicity of Ischia Island, Italy: An Integrated Earthquake Catalogue From 8th Century BC to 2019 and Its Statistical Properties

Bayesian validation of the seismic source models using the Wylfa Newydd site in the UK as a case study

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