A Bayesian Network-based risk dynamic simulation model for accidental water pollution discharge of mine tailings ponds at watershed-scale

Liu, Jing; Liu, Renzhi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Cai, Yanpeng; Zhang, Lixiao

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.06.060

Cited by 46 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…We used variance reduction to perform the sensitivity analysis, and more details can be seen in Marcot (2012). The larger the mutual information, the greater influence of the input nodes on output nodes (Liu et al, 2019; Marcot, 2012). Through sensitivity analysis, we identified the sensitivity degree of changes in probabilities to output nodes when the states of input nodes were changed.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled influence of flow velocity and water temperature on grass carp swimming behaviour and gonad development

Liu

Yin

Qiu

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Reproductive migration is an essential phase in the life of many fish. During this process, swimming behaviour and gonad development are key factors related to the migration quality, and both factors are strongly influenced by water temperature and flow velocity. Many studies have explored the separate effects of these variables on fish swimming ability or gonad development, but researchers have seldom investigated the simultaneous effects of low flow velocity and water temperature on the fish swimming behaviour and gonad development. To provide that knowledge, we conducted laboratory experiments that explored the coupled effects of low water temperature and flow on warm water fish swimming behaviour and gonad development. At five temperatures (16, 18, 20, 22, and 24 C), we observed the movement of migratory warmwater grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) at seven flow velocities (0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35, 0.40, and 0.45 m/s), then explored their gonad development by comparing the level of plasma 17β-estradiol and testosterone in fish travelling through a simulated fish way (flow stimulation) and in a fish tank (no flow stimulation). We used Bayesian networks to explore the acceptable hydrological condition for fish migration.We found that the minimum flow velocity for acceptable migration quality is a function of the water temperature, and that increasing water temperature improves fish movement success and increases the movement distance, especially at a low flow velocity. In addition, increasing water temperature (between 16 and 24 C in this experiment design) can enhance the effect of flow stimulation on gonad development. Overall, our results can broaden the understanding of reducing water temperature and flow velocity in fish swimming behaviour and gonad development, provide basic data to support hydrological process controls and the development of measures to protect fish migration.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled influence of flow velocity and water temperature on grass carp swimming behaviour and gonad development

Liu

Yin

Qiu

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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“…It is usually considered that the distribution of pollutants in the depth direction of the river is uniform, so it can be assumed that the contaminant does not substantially diffuse in the z direction, that is, the concentration diffusion coefficient is approximately zero; and the diffusion coefficient is non-zero in the x and y directions. Therefore, this study used the two-dimensional water quality model [27][28][29].…”

Section: Governing Equationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Heavy Metal Pollution during Accidents: A Case Study of the Heshangshan Protected Water Area, China

2019

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Recently, water environmental accidents have occasionally occurred which have had wide-ranging influences, long durations and are difficult to deal with. The development of the social economy, the acceleration of industrialization, the huge discharge of industrial wastewater and the occasional occurrence of ship transportation accidents pose serious threats to the water quality of water inlets and protected water areas. This article applied the two-dimensional water quality model, used a GIS platform and FORTRAN language, and predicted spatio-temporal variations of the iron concentration during a water pollution accident. This research selected the water inlet of Heshangshan Water Plant and the Heshangshan protected water area as the research objective, and assumed a water pollution event had occurred. It was suggested that we should take corresponding emergency measures and relevant solutions to deal with the bad effects of water pollution accidents. The processes mainly included the selection of the study area, the determination of the equation to be used, parameters determination, as well as the identification of the accident scenario and source. The durations of the iron concentration exceeding the standard at the water inlet were 12–18 min and in the protected water area were 16–36 min in four water periods after the accident. In addition, the durations taken for the iron concentration to decrease to the background value in the protected water area were 18–38 min after the accident in four water periods in the accident scenario. Relevant departments should take some contingency measures to avoid fetching water from the intake after the accident within 40 min after the accident and the relevant staff can cancel the warning 40 min after the accident.

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“…In practical aspects, managers can be using the specific concept of jurisdiction to define the geographic limits of their actions. Several approaches used the hierarchy effect in space and time to understand these (Sha et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2018;Liu et al, 2019). Accordilig Wan et al (2014) process-based watershed pollution models have proved useful to simulate complex processes, for example, a Bayesian hierarchical model that investigated the effects of air pollution on health over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of the Impact of sanitary decisions over water quality using Bayesian Belief Networks in Upper Pantanal Wetland Basin – Brazil

Silva

Barbosa

Olinda

et al. 2022

RSD

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Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) modeling the water quality has become popular due to advances in computational techniques. For this instance, BBN is a useful tool to modeling the relationship between water quality data and population or urbanization parameters on a watershed scale. This method can combine primary water quality data and decision parameters and help scientists and decision-makers analyze several scenarios on a watershed, including the effect of scale. This paper aims to analyze and discuss the application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) on the relationship between watershed water quality and sanitary management indicators, studying a case on the Pantanal Wetland tributary watershed. Two scales BBN were constructed using ten years of water quality and sewage management datasets. Both BBNs were responsive and sensitive to water quality parameters. The Total Nitrogen and E. coli were de most essential parameters to simulate changes in water quality scenarios. The simulated scenarios showed structural limitations about the Pantanal Wetland Cities' sanitary system in the present study. We strongly recommend a review of the goals of sanitary structure and services and alert to the risk of a sanitary crisis in Pantanal Wetland.

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A Bayesian Network-based risk dynamic simulation model for accidental water pollution discharge of mine tailings ponds at watershed-scale

Cited by 46 publications

References 43 publications

Coupled influence of flow velocity and water temperature on grass carp swimming behaviour and gonad development

Coupled influence of flow velocity and water temperature on grass carp swimming behaviour and gonad development

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Heavy Metal Pollution during Accidents: A Case Study of the Heshangshan Protected Water Area, China

Study of the Impact of sanitary decisions over water quality using Bayesian Belief Networks in Upper Pantanal Wetland Basin – Brazil

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