A Behavioural Theory of Discrimination in Policing

Abstract

A large economic literature studies whether racial disparities in policing are explained by animus or by beliefs about group crime rates. But what if these beliefs are incorrect? We analyze a model where officers form beliefs using crime statistics, but don’t properly account for the fact that they will detect more crime in more heavily policed communities. This creates a feedback loop where officers over-police groups that they (incorrectly) believe exhibit high crime rates. This inferential mistake can exacerbate discrimination even among officers with no animus and who sincerely believe disparities are driven by real differences in crime rates.

Social Segregation, Inter-Group Contact and Discriminatory Policing

“…One important feature of this optimal allocation is that it does not depend on any of the "social life parameters" (the t J or κ s J parameters) or who the officer chooses to socialize with (the s J 19. If an officer prefers catching crimes committed by group J more this will have the natural effect of increasing the time spent policing that group, which will generate feedback loops similar to those studied in Hübert and Little (2022). parameters).…”

“…point out that it is uncommon for studies of statistical discrimination to consider (let alone test for) the possibility that it could occur due to biased or otherwise incorrect beliefs. Hübert and Little (2022) and Hull (2021) also highlight the challenge of distinguishing between the different causes of discrimination, particularly when 5. However, Walker (2020) finds that "proximal contact" with the criminal justice system (e.g., via a relative) is associated with increased political participation, and Peyton, Sierra-Arévalo, and Rand (2019) find certain kinds of positive, non-enforcement activity by officers increases willingness to cooperate with police.…”

“…While we do not explicitly model which group the officer is a member of, differences in social circles may be an important driver of differences in officer behavior by racial group (Antonovics and Knight 2009;Donohue and Levitt 2001;Ba, Knox, et al 2021). We could also add similar parameters to capture the fact that the officer might prefer catching crimes committed by members of one group (or simply being punitive towards that group), as in Hübert and Little (2022). However, to keep our focus on how biases arise from the officer's social life, we assume that the officer does not explicitly care whether he catches crimes committed by members of one group or the other when he is at work as a police officer.…”

Behavioral public choice and policing in America

“…This, in turn, creates a feedback loop where they assume that there is more crime in heavily policed communities and thus overpolice certain groups because they inaccurately perceive that these areas and the groups in them have higher crime rates. Our paper is in a similar vein as Hübert and Little (2022) in that we apply behavioral insights specifically to police beliefs and actions to explain why we may see undesirable results, and we also discuss how institutional features can exacerbate these biases.…”

“…In a recent publication, Hübert and Little (2022) apply behavioral economics to understanding the racial disparities in policing. Their framework describes how police officers' beliefs do not accurately account for the fact that they will detect more crime in more heavily policed communities.…”