A big data analysis of Twitter data during premier league matches: do tweets contain information valuable for in-play forecasting of goals in football?

Abstract

Data-related analysis in football increasingly benefits from Big Data approaches and machine learning methods. One relevant application of data analysis in football is forecasting, which relies on understanding and accurately modelling the process of a match. The present paper tackles two neglected facets of forecasting in football: Forecasts on the total number of goals and in-play forecasting (forecasts based on within-match information). Sentiment analysis techniques were used to extract the information reflected in almost two million tweets from more than 400 Premier League matches. By means of wordclouds and timely analysis of several tweet-based features, the Twitter communication over the full course of matches and shortly before and after goals was visualized and systematically analysed. Moreover, several forecasting models including a random forest model have been used to obtain in-play forecasts. Results suggest that in-play forecasting of goals is highly challenging, and in-play information does not improve forecasting accuracy. An additional analysis of goals from more than 30,000 matches from the main European football leagues supports the notion that the predictive value of in-play information is highly limited compared to pre-game information. This is a relevant result for coaches, match analysts and broadcasters who should not overestimate the value of in-play information. The present study also sheds light on how the perception and behaviour of Twitter users change over the course of a football match. A main result is that the sentiment of Twitter users decreases when the match progresses, which might be caused by an unjustified high expectation of football fans before the match.

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