A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and sensitivity analysis

Megrey, Bernard A.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Klumb, Robert A.; Hay, D. E.; Werner, Francisco E.; Eslinger, David L.; Smith, S. Lan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.020

Cited by 140 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…All of these studies suggest that prey dynamics (indirect effects of climate) need to be included in models that hope to explore the effects of projected warming of the Baltic Sea on sprat population dynamics. Although more complex, physiological-based models exist that simulate the whole life cycle of small, zooplanktivorous fishes as well as the dynamics of their prey fields (e.g., Megrey et al 2007), these models are difficult to parameterize (Travers et al 2007). A hybrid model that combines an early life stage IBM with a stage-based matrix model for juveniles and adults could be more easily constructed and used to test hypotheses regarding the importance of climate-driven physical and biological processes to sprat population dynamics in the Baltic Sea.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

et al. 2012

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Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (?0, ?2, ?4, ?6°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

et al. 2012

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“…It is important that model estimates of the production of large zooplankton be accurate because this functional group often forms the primary link to higher trophic levels (e.g., fish as added to the NEMURO model by Megrey et al, 2006 andRose et al, 2006b; this issue). In ecosystems where autotrophic picoplankton are particularly important, the microbial food web could be better simulated by including separate picoplankton, nanophytoplankton, heterotrophic flagellates and microzooplankton groups (e.g., Le Quéré et al, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem

Kishi

Kashiwai

Ware³

et al. 2007

Ecological Modelling

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312

226

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The PICES CCCC (North Pacific Marine Science Organization, ClimateChange and Carrying Capacity program) MODEL Task Team achieved a consensus on the structure of a prototype lower trophic level ecosystem model for the North Pacific Ocean, and named it the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography, "NEMURO". Through an extensive dialog between modelers, plankton biologists and oceanographers, an extensive review was conducted to define NEMURO's process equations and their parameter values for distinct geographic regions. We present in this paper the formulation, structure and governing equations of NEMURO as well as examples to illustrate its behavior. NEMURO has eleven state variables: nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton biomass, small, large and predatory zooplankton biomass, particulate and dissolved organic nitrogen, particulate silica, and silicic acid concentration. Several applications reported in this issue of Ecological Modelling have successfully used NEMURO, and an extension that includes fish as an additional state variable. Applications include studies of the biogeochemistry of the North Pacific, and variations of its ecosystem's lower trophic levels and two target fish species at regional and basin-scale levels, and on time scales from seasonal to interdecadal.5

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“…the energy loss associated with food digestive processes) are subtracted ( Table 5). Each of these losses accounts for a constant proportion of the consumption rate, and all together typically amount to 50% (Rose et al 1999, Megrey et al 2007. The variable C A represents the consumption of herbivorous zooplankton ( ) and omnivorous zooplankton ( ) by an individual anchovy.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical formulation of the weight growth model: The bioenergetics-based anchovy weight growth model follows Luo & Brandt (1993), Rose et al (1999), McDermot & Rose (2000), and Megrey et al (2007). No weight growth occurs in egg and yolk-sac larval phases of each daily cohort.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A coupled plankton–anchovy population dynamics model assessing nonlinear controls of anchovy and gelatinous biomass in the Black Sea

Oğuz¹,

Salihoğlu²,

Fach³

2008

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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A coupled model of lower trophic levels and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus ponticus population dynamics was developed to analyze the mechanisms controlling sharp anchovy and gelatinous zooplankton biomass transitions from the 1960s to the 1980s in the Black Sea. An increase in anchovy stocks from estimated low (~300 kt) to moderate (~700 kt) in the late 1960s was related to weakening piscivore predation pressure, slight nutrient enrichment of the basin during an early eutrophication phase, and competitive exclusion of gelatinous carnivores. The transition to high stocks (~1500 kt) from 1979 to 1980 was caused by additional nutrient enrichment. With enhanced enrichment, gelatinous carnivores started to coexist with anchovy at low biomass levels (<1.0 gC m -2 ), but they did not yet exert a strong control on anchovy because of their competitive disadvantage of consuming prey at low carrying capacity. The third transition (1989)(1990) returned the anchovy stock to the low regime and increased the biomass of the alien gelatinous species Mnemiopsis leidyi (hereafter Mnemiopsis) to 3.0 gC m -2 . The anchovy-Mnemiopsis shift was pre-conditioned by nutrient accumulation in the subsurface layer and triggered by their more effective transport into the productive surface layer following the switch of regional climate into a severe winter phase during 1985-1987. The resulting enhanced resource carrying capacity, together with decreasing adult anchovy stocks, led to a competitive advantage of Mnemiopsis in food exploitation relative to anchovy, growth and reproductive advantages relative to the native gelatinous species Aurelia aurita, and stronger predation on anchovy eggs and larvae. The anchovy stock depletion was caused by increasing fishing pressure and by competition with and predation by Mnemiopsis. While nonlinear coupling of these 2 independent processes amplified the anchovy collapse, neither would be able to individually impose such a severe anchovy stock change under the observed environmental conditions of the Black Sea.

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A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and sensitivity analysis

Cited by 140 publications

References 56 publications

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem

A coupled plankton–anchovy population dynamics model assessing nonlinear controls of anchovy and gelatinous biomass in the Black Sea

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