A Bottom-Up Approach to Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Modeling with a Focus on Cathode Active Materials

Abstract

In this study, we develop a method for calculating electric vehicle lithium-ion battery pack performance and cost. To begin, we construct a model allowing for calculation of cell performance and material cost using a bottom-up approach starting with real-world material costs. It thus provides a supplement to existing models, which often begin with fixed cathode active material (CAM) prices that do not reflect raw metal price fluctuations. We collect and display data from the London Metal Exchange to show that such metal prices, in this case specifically cobalt and nickel, do indeed fluctuate and cannot be assumed to remain static or decrease consistently. We input this data into our model, which allows for a visualization of the effects of these metal price fluctuations on the prices of the CAMs. CAMs analyzed include various lithium transition metal oxide-type layered oxide (NMC and NCA) technologies, as well as cubic spinel oxide (LMO), high voltage spinel oxide (LNMO), and lithium metal phosphate (LFP). The calculated CAM costs are combined with additional cell component costs in order to calculate full cell costs, which are in turn scaled up to full battery pack costs. Economies of scale are accounted for separately for each cost fraction.

Degradation Mechanisms and Mitigation Strategies of Nickel-Rich NMC-Based Lithium-Ion Batteries

“…Moreover, materials such as Li 2 MnO 3 and lithium titanate do not possess great industrial potential as cathodes due to short lifespans and high costs. Here, NMC-based cathode materials are much cheaper to produce (~ USD 23 per kg for NMC111) as suggested by researchers using a co-precipitation method [3], and the increase in NMC-based material prices from January 2017 to March 2018 (~ 43% for NMC532 and NMC622, and ~ 27% for NMC811) [4] indicates that more research is being directed to the field of NMC-based cathode materials due to their commercial potential. Following the initial commercial success of LiNi 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 O 2 (NMC333 or NMC111), NMC-based LIBs have become the mainstream with gradual improvements in NMC technology through the steady increase in the nickel content in each generation of cathode materials.…”

Reducing Capacity and Voltage Decay of Co‐Free Li1.2Ni0.2Mn0.6O2 as Positive Electrode Material for Lithium Batteries Employing an Ionic Liquid‐Based Electrolyte

“…[2] Economical and environmental concerns associated with lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are becoming increasingly important as present LIB cells heavily rely on cobalt (Co)-containing positive electrode materials bearing severe supply risks due to the very limited availability of Co and the conditions under which it is mined. [3,4] Among the Co-free positive electrode materials, LRLOs, more specifically Li 1.2 Ni 0.2 Mn 0.6 O 2 (LRNM), have a comparably low nickel content as LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO), but at the same time have much larger specific capacity (250 vs 147 mAh g −1 ), and therefore far higher energy density than any other Lithium-rich layered oxides (LRLOs) exhibit specific capacities above 250 mAh g −1 , i.e., higher than any of the commercially employed lithium-ion-positive electrode materials. Such high capacities result in high specific energies, meeting the tough requirements for electric vehicle applications.…”

“…Herein, the eco-friendly, cobalt-free Li existing Co-free cathode material. [4,5] However, the practical use of Co-free LRLOs is impeded by the low first cycle coulombic efficiency, the rather low rate capability and, most critically, the pronounced capacity and voltage fading upon cycling. [6] The root cause for these issues is associated with the activation of the Li 2 MnO 3 component at high potentials (4.6-4.8 V), which, however, is also the reason for the high capacity.…”

Solid versus Liquid—A Bottom‐Up Calculation Model to Analyze the Manufacturing Cost of Future High‐Energy Batteries

“…To estimate the manufacturing cost for the different cell designs, a mass production scenario with an annual output of 6 GWh was simulated. Note that a running production with three shifts per day (cf.…”

“…Hence, more galvanic cells (cathode, separator, anode) can be fit into one PHEV cell housing, resulting in a higher energy density and specific energy. [18] To estimate the manufacturing cost for the different cell designs, a mass production scenario with an annual output of 6 GWh [22] was simulated. Note that a running production with three shifts per day (cf.…”