Summary The 'unopposed oestrogen hypothesis' for endometrial cancer maintains that risk is increased by exposure to endogenous or exogenous oestrogen that is not opposed simultaneously by a progestagen, and that this increased risk is due to the induced mitotic activity of the endometrial cells. Investigation of the mitotic rate during the menstrual cycle shows that increases in plasma oestrogen concentration above the relatively low levels of the early follicular phase do not produce any further increase in the mitotic rate of endometrial cells. A modification of the unopposed oestrogen hypothesis which includes this upper limit in the response of endometrial cells to oestrogen is consistent with the known dose-effect relationships between endometrial cancer risk and both oestrogen replacement therapy and postmenopausal obesity; it also suggests that the mechanism by which obesity increases risk in premenopausal women involves progesterone deficiency rather than oestrogen excess, and that the protective effect of cigarette smoking may be greater in postmenopausal than in premenopausal women.Detailed analysis of the age-incidence curve for endometrial cancer in the light of this hypothesis suggests that there will be lifelong effects of even short duration use of exogenous hormones. In particular, 5 years of combination-type oral contraceptive use is likely to reduce a woman's lifetime risk of endometrial cancer by some 60%; whereas 5 years of unopposed oestrogen replacement therapy is likely to increase her subsequent lifetime risk by at least 90%; and even 5 years of 'adequately' opposed therapy is likely to increase subsequent lifetime risk by at least 50%.Epidemiological studies have shown that the risk of developing endometrial cancer increases markedly with increasing weight and with use of oestrogen replacement therapy (ERT) or sequential-type oral contraceptives, and decreases markedly with use of combination-type oral contraceptives (COCs) (Weiss et al., 1980;Henderson et al., 1983). These risk factors can all be explained in terms of the 'unopposed oestrogen hypothesis' for endometrial cancer (Siiteri, 1978;Henderson et al., 1982).In essence the unopposed oestrogen hypothesis maintains that endometrial cancer risk is increased by exposure to endogenous or exogenous oestrogen which is not opposed by progesterone or a synthetic progestagen, and that this increased risk is caused by the increased mitotic activity of the endometrium induced by such exposure. It has, however, not been clear that this hypothesis can explain the high relative risk associated with obesity in premenopausal women.In this paper we first argue, on the basis of studies of premenopausal hormone levels and of endometrial mitotic rates, that endometrial cell division is not increased by increases in plasma oestrogen concentration above early follicular levels. We show that epidemiological studies of the effects of different doses of ERT on endometrial cancer risk are consistent with the existence of such an upper limit, as are studies...