A case study of multi-annual temperature oscillations in the atmosphere: Middle Europe

Offermann, D.; Goussev, Oleg; Kalicinsky, Christoph; Koppmann, R.; Matthes, Katja; Schmidt, Hauke; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Wintel, Johannes

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2015.10.003

Cited by 21 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…3, right panel) over 2 hPa (42 km). Our results are in agreement with other observational and modelling studies (Eckert et al, 2014;Calisesi et al, 2005;Schneider et al, 2005;Perliski et al, 1989). For instance, Schneider et al (2005) obtained a maximum AO-amplitude of the order of 15 % at 26 km and around 18 % at 40 km with observations between 1995 and 2002 from the Bordeaux mi- Figure 3.…”

Section: Annual Oscillation (Ao)supporting

confidence: 92%

“…Near 3 hPa at midlatitudes, the magnitude of the SAO amplitude is larger than the magnitude of the AO amplitude. This effect is also observed by Perliski et al (1989). After the annual cycle, the solar variability seems to be the largest source of variation in ozone, exhibiting its influence around 20 hPa.…”

Section: Amplitudes Of the Natural Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…The seasonal variations, given in terms of annual and semi-annual oscillations (AO, SAO), have been studied for many years (e.g. Ern et al, 2015;Schneider et al, 2005;Cordero and Kawa, 2001;Garcia et al, 1997;Ray et al, 1994;Perliski et al, 1989;Delisi and Dunkerton, 1988;Maeda, 1984). On interannual timescales dynamical feedbacks in the Earth system lead to effects of originally tropical phenomena, such as quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on midlatitude wave structures and wave propagation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Moreira¹

2016

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Section: Annual Oscillation (Ao)supporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Amplitudes Of the Natural Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Moreira¹

2016

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“…On the other hand, Offermann et al (2015) have proposed self-sustained oscillators in the atmosphere for the first time to support the theory that the oscillations they studied are excited internally in the atmosphere. They stated that the periods and phases observed might be interpreted as synchronisation effects that are typical of non-linear oscillators.…”

Section: Solar Activity Cyclementioning

confidence: 63%

The natural oscillations in stratospheric ozone observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at the NDACC station Bern

et al. 2016

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Abstract. A multilinear parametric regression analysis was performed to assess the seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric ozone profiles from the GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer) microwave radiometer at Bern, Switzerland (46.95 • N, 7.44 • E; 577 m). GROMOS takes part in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The study covers the stratosphere from 50 to 0.5 hPa (from 21 to 53 km) and extends over the period from January 1997 to January 2015. The natural variability was fitted during the regression analysis through the annual and semi-annual oscillations (AO, SAO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the solar activity cycle. Seasonal ozone variations mainly appear as an annual cycle in the middle and upper stratosphere and a semiannual cycle in the upper stratosphere. Regarding the interannual variations, they are primarily present in the lower and middle stratosphere. In the lower and middle stratosphere, ozone variations are controlled predominantly by transport processes, due to the long lifetime of ozone, whereas in the upper stratosphere its lifetime is relatively short and ozone is controlled mainly by photochemistry. The present study shows agreement in the observed naturally induced ozone signatures with other studies. Further, we present an overview of the possible causes of the effects observed in stratospheric ozone due to natural oscillations at a northern midlatitude station. For instance regarding the SAO, we find that polar winter stratopause warmings contribute to the strength of this oscillation since these temperature enhancements lead to a reduction in upper stratospheric ozone. We have detected a strong peak amplitude of about 5 % for the solar cycle in lower stratospheric ozone for our 1.5 cycles of solar activity. Though the 11-year ozone oscillation above Bern is in phase with the solar cycle, we suppose that the strong amplitude is partly due to meteorological disturbances and associated ozone anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Further, our observational study gave the result that ozone above Bern is anti-correlated with the ENSO phenomenon in the lower stratosphere and correlated in the middle stratosphere.

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“…The nature of the 25-year oscillation is not clear yet, but a self-sustained oscillation in the atmosphere would be a real possibility. Such oscillations were recently discovered by Offermann et al (2015). An oscillation with a period of about 20 to 25 years is found in various atmospheric parameters such as temperature (Qu et al, 2012;Wei et al, 2015), geopotential height (Coughlin and Tung, 2004a, b), and planetary wave activity (Jarvis, 2006;Höppner and Bittner, 2007).…”

Section: Long-term Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 93%

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

et al. 2016

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Abstract. We present the analysis of annual average OH * temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS) at Wuppertal (51 • N, 7 • E) in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed longterm dynamics.We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity) and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055) K year −1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9) K (100 SFU) −1 (r 2 of fit 0.6). However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07) K year −1 , and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33) K year −1 . This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle). A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients C solar = (5.0 ± 0.7) K (100 SFU) −1 and C hale = (1.8 ± 0.5) K (100 µT) −1 (r 2 = 0.71). The second way of describing the OH * temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A leastsquare fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8) K (100 SFU) −1 , a period P = (24.8 ± 3.3) years, and an amplitude C sin = (1.95 ± 0.44) K of the oscillation (r 2 = 0.78). The most important finding here is that using this description an additional linear trend is no longer needed. Moreover, with the knowledge of this 25-year oscillation the linear trends derived in this and in a former study of the Wuppertal data series can be reproduced by just fitting a line to the corresponding part (time interval) of the oscillation. This actually means that, depending on the analysed time interval, completely different linear trends with respect to magnitude and sign can be observed. This fact is of essential importance for any comparison between different observations and model simulations.

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A case study of multi-annual temperature oscillations in the atmosphere: Middle Europe

Cited by 21 publications

References 21 publications

Final author comments

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The natural oscillations in stratospheric ozone observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at the NDACC station Bern

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

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