A causal loop analysis for sustainable supply of apple juice product

Abstract

Continuity of apple juice supply in Kota Batu in the future is not easy to predict. This research develops a conceptual framework of dynamic system as a strategic tool to ensure sustainability of apple juice supply. It comprises of two steps. First, related triggers are identified. This generates apple juice supply chain into three subsystems, there are supply, demand, and production sub-systems. Second, identifying the interactions between variables of integrated system and eventually supplying feedback. Data and information were collected by interview to related stakeholders. System was designed by conceptualization using cause and effect diagrams (CLD) based on apple juice supply chain configurations that have been obtained. CLD was used to for transformation of obtained interview results. Result shown supply chain of apple juice in Kota Batu consist of 4 tiers. The relationship of feedback between variables then divided into 3 sub-systems. The proposed framework could be used to model the operation of the supply chain network under study and obtain a true reflection of its behaviour in future research.