A cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of cases in the Vascún Valley, Ecuador

Machado, Guillermo; Lupiano, Valeria; Avolio, Maria Vittoria; Gullace, Francesco; Gregorio, Salvatore Di

doi:10.1016/j.jocs.2015.08.001

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…LLUNPIY (Lahar modelling by Local rules based on an UNderlying PIck of Yoked processes, "llunp'iy" means flood in the Quechua language) is a model for simulating secondary and primary lahars according to MCA methodology applied to complex system, whose evolution may be mainly specified in terms of local interaction. MCA features of SCIDDICA-SS3 (Avolio et al, 2013) and SCIDDICA-SS2 (Avolio et al, 2008;Lupiano et al, 2016;Lupiano et al, 2017) are inherited by LLUNPIY; LLUNPIY for secondary lahars is extensively defined in Machado et al (2015b), here are reported only the features of the model, that were applied in the study cases (reduced version LLUNPIY/3r from SCIDDICA-SS2), where the initial phase is abrupt, it is given by the temporary pond collapse without water percolation and detachment subsequent to water inclusion, furthermore in the simulation of real and hypothesized events, all the lahars end into the Rio Pastaza, so the last phase of lahar deposition is omitted. LLUNPIY modelling of water percolation and water extrusion with pyroclastic debris deposition can be found also in Machado (2015c).…”

Section: Llunpiy Model For Lahar Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…data of the flood phase (Machado et al, 2015b) would allow reliable simulations. Data of different sources were carefully compared and analyzed (Williams et al, 2008;IGEPN, 2008) in order to reconstruct as accurately as possible the two events (Machado et al, 2014a and2014b).…”

Section: Simulations Of 2008 Lahars Of Vascún Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 2005 event was triggered in a higher zone of Rio Vascún, when the water concentration in the soil by rainfall reached critical values in areas, where a slope threshold was exceeded. The 2008 event was dissimilar, because the breaking of a temporary pond released suddenly a larger water quantity (in comparison with 2005 case) with strong turbulence, whose effects correspond to a higher value of the parameter of progressive erosion (Machado et al, 2015b).…”

Section: Simulations Of 2008 Lahars Of Vascún Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulations of flow-like landslides were performed by several versions of the MCA model SCIDDICA since 1987 for both subaerial and subaqueous debris/granular/mud flows (e.g., Barca et al, 1987;Avolio et al 2008;Mazzanti et al, 2010;Avolio et al 2013;Lupiano et al, 2014;Lupiano et al, 2015a;Lupiano et al, 2015b;Lupiano et al, 2015c;Lupiano et al, 2017). Simulations of primary and secondary lahars were performed by the MCA model LLUNPIY (Machado et al, 2014;Machado et al, 2015a;Machado et al, 2015b;Chidichimo et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador

Lupiano¹,

Chidichimo²,

Machado³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Lahars are erosive floods, mixtures of water and pyroclastic deposits, they look the biggest environmental disaster as number of fatalities in the volcanic areas. Security measures have been recently adopted in the threatened territories, by constructing retaining dams and embankments in key positions. Such solutions could involve a strong environmental impact for the works and the continuous accumulation of volcanic deposits, such that equilibrium conditions could lack far, triggering more disastrous events. An improved version of the Cellular Automaton model LLUNPIY for lahars simulations is presented. The growing frequency of lahars, maybe for the climatic change, in the Vascún Valley of Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador has recently produced smaller and less dangerous events, sometimes favoured by the collapse of temporary ponds, generated by small landslides. An investigation is here performed in order to reproduce such situations in controlled way by the use of LLUNPIY simulations. Using precise field data, points are individuated where dams by backfills, easy to collapse, can produce momentary ponds; LLUNPIY simulations permit to project triggering of small lahars by minor rainfall events or to project in the case of larger rainfalls the anticipation of lahar detachment, avoiding simultaneous and dangerous confluence with other lahars.

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Section: Llunpiy Model For Lahar Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulations Of 2008 Lahars Of Vascún Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulations Of 2008 Lahars Of Vascún Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador

Lupiano¹,

Chidichimo²,

Machado³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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show abstract

“…The first version has been developed to simulate secondary lahars with applications to two events at Tungurahua volcano 2015).…”

Section: Llunpy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano

Machado

Lupiano

Crisci

et al. 2015

Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

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Cotopaxi volcano is one of the most studied and surveyed volcanos in the world because the repetition of the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion, is not implausible, threatening now more than 100,000 persons. A reliable forecasting tool is very important for projecting security measures. LLUNPIY is a Cellular Automata model for simulating lahars in terms of complex system evolving on the base of local interaction. Here, LLUNPIY extension is applied to Cotopaxi event of 1877 primary lahars, after the successful simulation of some secondary lahars of Tungurahua volcano. Such an extension permitted simulations with different initial hypotheses: our preliminary simulations agree in outline with field studies about the evolution of event, moreover LLUNPIY permits a broader approach to overall phenomenon in comparison with other tools.

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Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

Frimberger

Andrade

Weber

et al. 2021

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its $10 km 2 glacier cap, (ii) its 117-147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of $70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy-Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025-0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000-1400 m/s 2). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2-3, 3-4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50-400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy-Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.

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A cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of cases in the Vascún Valley, Ecuador

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador

From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador

LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano

Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

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