73Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past 74 conditions, whilst future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting 75 approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of 76 climate, land-use and human population changes. 77 Location: Sub-Saharan Africa 78 Methods: We compiled occurrence data on African ape populations from the IUCN A.P.E.S. 79 database and extracted relevant human-, climate-and habitat-related predictors representing 80 current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific distribution under a best-and a 81 worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Given the large effect on model predictions, 82 we further tested algorithm sensitivity by considering default and non-default modelling 83 options. The latter included interactions between predictors and polynomial terms in 84 correlative algorithms. 85 Results: The future distributions of gorilla and bonobo populations are likely to be directly 86 determined by climate-related variables. In contrast, future chimpanzee distribution is 87 influenced mostly by anthropogenic variables. Both our modelling approaches produced 88 similar model accuracy, although a slight difference in the magnitude of range change was 89 found for Gorilla beringei beringei, G. gorilla diehli, and Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii. On 90 average, a decline of 50% of the geographic range (non-default; or 55% default) is expected 91 under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (57% non-default or 58% default in worst 92 scenario). However, new areas of suitable habitat are predicted to become available for most 93 taxa if dispersal occurs (81% or 103% best, 93% or 91% worst, non-default and default, 94 respectively), except for G. b. beringei. 95 Main Conclusions: Despite the uncertainty in predicting the precise proportion of suitable 96 habitat by 2050, both modelling approaches predict large range losses for all African apes. 97 Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land-use planning and simultaneously 98 support conservation and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels 99 both in range countries and abroad.100 101