A Century of Ocean Warming on Florida Keys Coral Reefs: Historic In Situ Observations

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffrey S.

doi:10.1007/s12237-014-9875-5

Cited by 74 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Our goal was to produce a robust calibration equation for O. faveolata that can be utilized to evaluate the role and response of SST variability throughout the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean to broad‐scale climatic oscillations over both historical and geologic time periods. The Sr/Ca‐SST proxy likely performs better at subtropical locations such as the Florida Keys, where there is a larger annual range of SSTs (~12 °C, Kuffner et al, ; Kuffner, ) compared with tropical locations with very narrow annual temperature ranges (e.g., the equatorial Pacific region, ~7 °C annual SST range, Alpert et al, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Uncertainty in Sr/Ca‐Based Estimates of SST From the Coral Orbicella faveolata

Flannery

Richey

Toth

et al. 2018

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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The strontium to calcium ratio (Sr/Ca) in aragonitic skeletons of massive corals provides a proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) that can be used to reconstruct paleoclimates across decades, centuries, and, potentially, millennia. Determining the reproducibility of Sr/Ca records among contemporaneous coral colonies from the same region is critical to quantifying uncertainties associated with the Sr/Ca‐SST proxy. We evaluated both intracolony and intercolony variability in Sr/Ca using five modern colonies of Orbicella faveolata collected live from the Dry Tortugas National Park, FL. We regressed all available Sr/Ca‐SST data pairs from the five O. faveolata colonies against the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer gridded SST data set to produce a new Sr/Ca‐SST calibration equation (Sr/Ca = −0.049 × SST + 10.460), which we suggest can be applied to O. faveolata colonies collected throughout the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean region. We estimated total uncertainty by calculating the root‐mean‐square of the intracolony, intercolony, and analytical error terms. Our (1σ) uncertainty estimates of 0.082 mmol/mol (1.66 °C) for subannual Sr/Ca‐SST and 0.070 mmol/mol (1.43 °C) for mean annual Sr/Ca‐SST represent conservative error terms that can be applied to individual data points in single‐colony Sr/Ca‐SST reconstructions. We illustrate how these uncertainties can be significantly reduced by generating multicolony reconstructions and/or through replication of sampling within individual coral colonies. Although the uncertainties on absolute Sr/Ca‐based SST are likely too large to allow researchers to evaluate subdecadal temperature variability, we show that the O. faveolata paleothermometer can reliably detect changes of ~2 °C across decadal timescales and ~1 °C over multidecadal timescales.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Uncertainty in Sr/Ca‐Based Estimates of SST From the Coral Orbicella faveolata

Flannery

Richey

Toth

et al. 2018

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

Self Cite

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“…Temperature is understood to be an important determinant of reproductive cycles in corals, and thus changing temperature regimes with ocean warming have the clear potential to disrupt coral spawning phenology (discussed in Baird et al 2009). Seasonal temperatures in the Florida Keys have already shown significant increase over historical baseline (Kuffner et al 2015;Manzello 2015). However, the temperature record for three of the observed reefs over these 8 yr does not show obvious consistency among 'good' or 'bad' spawning years (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Genet-specific spawning patterns in Acropora palmata

2016

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The broadcast spawning elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, requires outcrossing among different genets for effective fertilization. Hence, a low density of genets in parts of its range emphasizes the need for precise synchrony among neighboring genets as sperm concentration dilutes rapidly in open-ocean conditions. We documented the genet-specific nightly occurrence of spawning of A. palmata over 8 yr in a depauperate population in the Florida Keys to better understand this potential reproductive hurdle. The observed population failed to spawn within the predicted monthly window (nights 2-6 after the full moon in August) in three of the 8 yr of observation; negligible spawning was observed in a fourth year. Moreover, genet-specific patterns are evident in that (1) certain genets have significantly greater odds of spawning overall and (2) certain genets predictably spawn on the earlier and others on the later lunar nights within the predicted window. Given the already low genet density in this population, this pattern implies a substantial degree of wasted reproductive effort and supports the hypothesis that depensatory factors are impairing recovery in this species.

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“…Instead, mass coral bleaching in the Florida Keys has been correlated with monthly temperatures C 30.4°C at Molasses Reef (Manzello et al 2007a). A 30.9°C bleaching threshold may be erroneously high due to the fact that the Molasses Reef temperature record did not begin until 1988 and there is evidence that significant warming had already occurred in the Florida Keys by this time (Kuffner et al 2015;Manzello 2015). Consequently, we chose to use the observed bleaching threshold of 30.4°C, rather than the calculated theoretic value.…”

Section: Temperature Recordmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marked annual coral bleaching resilience of an inshore patch reef in the Florida Keys: A nugget of hope, aberrance, or last man standing?

et al. 2018

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Annual coral bleaching events, which are predicted to occur as early as the next decade in the Florida Keys, are expected to cause catastrophic coral mortality. Despite this, there is little field data on how Caribbean coral communities respond to annual thermal stress events. At Cheeca Rocks, an inshore patch reef near Islamorada, FL, the condition of 4234 coral colonies was followed over 2 yr of subsequent bleaching in 2014 and 2015, the two hottest summers on record for the Florida Keys. In 2014, this site experienced 7.7 degree heating weeks (DHW) and as a result 38.0% of corals bleached and an additional 36.6% were pale or partially bleached. In situ temperatures in summer of 2015 were even warmer, with the site experiencing 9.5 DHW. Despite the increased thermal stress in 2015, only 12.1% of corals were bleached in 2015, which was 3.1 times less than 2014. Partial mortality dropped from 17.6% of surveyed corals to 4.3% between 2014 and 2015, and total colony mortality declined from 3.4 to 1.9% between years. Total colony mortality was low over both years of coral bleaching with 94.7% of colonies surviving from 2014 to 2016. The reduction in bleaching severity and coral mortality associated with a second stronger thermal anomaly provides evidence that the response of Caribbean coral communities to annual bleaching is not strictly temperature dose dependent and that acclimatization responses may be possible even with short recovery periods. Whether the results from Cheeca Rocks represent an aberration or a true resilience potential is the subject of ongoing research.

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A Century of Ocean Warming on Florida Keys Coral Reefs: Historic In Situ Observations

Cited by 74 publications

References 58 publications

Quantifying Uncertainty in Sr/Ca‐Based Estimates of SST From the Coral Orbicella faveolata

Quantifying Uncertainty in Sr/Ca‐Based Estimates of SST From the Coral Orbicella faveolata

Genet-specific spawning patterns in Acropora palmata

Marked annual coral bleaching resilience of an inshore patch reef in the Florida Keys: A nugget of hope, aberrance, or last man standing?

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