A Change Talk Model for Abstinence Based on Web-Based Anonymous Gambler Chat Meeting Data by Using an Automatic Change Talk Classifier: Development Study

Abstract

Background Change and sustain talks (negative and positive comments) on gambling have been relevant for determining gamblers’ outcomes but they have not been used to clarify the abstinence process in anonymous gambler meetings. Objective The aim of this study was to develop a change talk model for abstinence based on data extracted from web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings by using an automatic change talk classifier. Methods This study used registry data from the internet. The author accessed web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings in Japan and sampled 1.63 million utterances (two-sentence texts) from 267 abstinent gamblers who have remained abstinent for at least three years and 1625 nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk classifier in this study automatically classified gamblers’ utterances into change and sustain talks. Results Abstinent gamblers showed higher proportions of change talks and lower probability of sustain talks compared with nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk model for abstinence, involving change and sustain talks, classified abstinent and nonabstinent gamblers through the use of a support vector machine with a radial basis kernel function. The model also indicated individual evaluation scores for abstinence and the ideal proportion of change talks for all participants according to their previous utterances. Conclusions Abstinence likelihood among gamblers can be increased by providing personalized evaluation values and indicating the optimal proportion of change talks. Moreover, this may help to prevent severe mental, social, and financial problems caused by the gambling disorder.

Spread of gambling abstinence through peers and comments in online self-help chat forums to quit gambling

“…Detailed definitions of these comments have been presented elsewhere 43 , 62 , 63 . The precision and recall scores of the change-talk classifier in this study were 0.9399 and 0.9399, respectively 9 .…”

“…This study used online registry data, parts of which were used in another study 9 . I web-scraped the website of online self-help chat forums to quit gambling in Japan 51 .…”

“…According to the change-talk classifier from a previous study 9 , all comments were categorized into six categories: change, general, sustain, acceptive, neutral, and rejective. The change comments were positive comments about gambling abstinence (e.g., “I want to stop gambling”), whereas the sustained comments were negative comments about gambling abstinence (e.g., “Gambling makes me happy”).…”

“…These findings indicate that their problematic gambling habits are associated with habits influenced by their peers online and offline. Although online gambling group could be linked to problem gambling 8 , online groups to quit gambling could be linked to gambling abstinence 9 . Hence, the current study focuses on the latter and examines the links between individuals’ gambling abstinence and the abstinence and comments of their peers on online social networks.…”

“…Given that previous findings have been in the context of other addictive disorders (e.g., smoking), the contagion theory should also be relevant to online self-help forums to quit gambling 40 . Regarding the existing literature in this regard 41 , although one study found positive links between gamblers’ comments in online self-help forums and their abstinence 9 , the links between their peers’ abstinence and comments with their own abstinence were not examined. Hence, this study tested these links in the context of online self-help forums to quit gambling.…”