A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record

Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Roebber, Paul J.; Elsner, James B.

doi:10.1029/98gl02055

Cited by 38 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…We find no significant differences between DFA and the method we used here. Therefore, while for very short time scales processes in the climate system tend to promote an existing trend, for longer time scales processes are activated to reverse an existing trend, consistent with the results obtained for the global temperature record (Tsonis et al, 1998). Thus, the conclusions reached by using the global temperature record are not just the result of some averaging procedure but reflect the properties of the small scale fluctuations in the temperature field.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Based on this approach, statistics of temperature fluctuations have been successfully applied to demonstrate the importance of El Niño in moderating changes in global temperature (Tsonis et al, 1998;Tsonis et al, 2003). Motivated by this previous study, mapping onto a random walk is used here to describe lowfrequency variations in the sequence of anomalous events over time in a given region and ultimately understand temporal variations and spatial organization of global temperature fluctuations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 Time-correlation scaling properties Tsonis et al (1998) applied the mapping onto a walk approach to the monthly global temperature record . They showed that the global temperature data exhibit two distinct scaling regimes; one consistent with a power law with H =0.65 for t<20 months and the other with a power law with H =0.4 for t>20 months.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field

Carvalho

Tsonis

Jones

et al. 2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. In this study, low-frequency variations in temperature anomaly are investigated by mapping temperature anomaly records onto random walks. We show evidence that global overturns in trends of temperature anomalies occur on decadal time-scales as part of the natural variability of the climate system. Paleoclimatic summer records in Europe and New-Zealand provide further support for these findings as they indicate that anti-persistence of temperature anomalies on decadal time-scale have occurred in the last 226 yrs. Atmospheric processes in the subtropics and mid-latitudes of the SH and interactions with the Southern Oceans seem to play an important role to moderate global variations of temperature on decadal time-scales.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field

Carvalho

Tsonis

Jones

et al. 2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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“…Analysis of global temperatures, T, supports our interpretation that ENSO variability is a response to climate change [Tsonis et al, 1998]. Over time intervals of up to 18 months, global temperature fluctuations amplify but over the length of the ENSO cycle, negative feedback reduces temperature fluctuations.…”

supporting

confidence: 51%

The Pacific decadal oscillation and long‐term climate prediction

Hunt

Tsonis

2000

EoS Transactions

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After 22 years of mostly cool temperatures, the North Pacific sea surface has been warm for the past 2 years. This raises the question of whether the warming trend in the North Pacific Ocean will continue for the next 20 years. The answer depends partly on whether the observed variability is an internal oscillation with its own time scale or whether it is externally driven. We are addressing this issue because important predictions are at stake. Positive North Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies tend to cause droughts in the southwestern and northeastern United States. Some scientists have assumed that a fundamental “regime shift” has now occurred with 20 years of warmer temperatures to come and California has been advised to prepare for a 20‐year period of drought. The basis for assuming a 40‐year periodicity is the century‐long record of North Pacific SSTs [Mantua et al., 1997]. More recently, a longer, proxy‐based data set [Chao et al., 2000] suggested that a) North Pacific SSTs oscillate in phase with a comparable spatial pattern in the South Pacific, and b) two periods of approximately 20 and 70 years exist.

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“…[16][17][18]23,26,[33][34][35][36] III. DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS Next we apply the above methods to study the nonstationarity of cloud base height (CBH) data sets and the correlations in their fluctuations on all measured time scales; data are obtained at the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program of the Department of Energy using a Belfort Laser Ceilometer (BLC) Model 7013C.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A case study of stratus cloud base height multifractal fluctuations

Shirer

Clothiaux

Kitova

et al. 2002

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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The complex structure of a typical stratus cloud base height (or profile) time series is analyzed with respect to the variability of its fluctuations and their correlations at all experimentally observed temporal scales. Due to the underlying processes that create these time series, they are expected to have multiscaling properties. For obtaining reliable measures of these scaling properties, different methods of statistical analysis are used herein : power spectral density, detrended fluctuation analysis, and multifractal analysis. This broad set of diagnostic techniques is applied to a typical stratus cloud base height (CBH) data set; data were obtained from the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program of the Department of Energy from a Belfort Laser Ceilometer. First, we demonstrate that this CBH time series is a nonstationary signal with stationary increments. Further, two scaling regimes are found, although the characteristic laws are quite similar ones. Next, the multi-affine scaling properties are confirmed. The scaling properties of the cloud base height profile of such a continental stratus are found to be similar to those of the marine cloud base height profiles studied by us previously. Some physical interpretation in terms of anomalous diffusion (or fractional random walk) is given for the continental case.

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A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record

Cited by 38 publications

References 6 publications

Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field

Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field

The Pacific decadal oscillation and long‐term climate prediction

A case study of stratus cloud base height multifractal fluctuations

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