A City-Level Integrated Case Base Design for Systemic Disaster Risk Management

Abstract

Urban disaster risks show multi-stage evolution and interconnected coupling features. Under time pressure, case-based reasoning (CBR) has emerged as a critical method for risk management decision making. Case-based reasoning tackles target case problems by leveraging solutions from similar historical cases. However, the current case base is inadequate for storing systemic risk cases, thus impeding CBR efficacy. This article presents a city-level integrated case base with a nested cross structure to facilitate the use of CBR in systemic risk management. It comprises a multi-layer vertical dimension and a multi-scale horizontal dimension. The vertical dimension is optimized to a four-layer (environment-hazard-object-aftermath) risk scenario classification system with taxonomy and fuzzy clustering analysis. The horizontal dimension is improved to a three-scale (network-chain-pair) risk association mode using event chain theory and association analysis. Hazard acts as the pivotal link between the two dimensions. An illustrative example displays the use process of the proposed case base, along with a discussion of its CBR-supported applications. Through the digital transformation, the suggested case base can serve government decision making with CBR, enhancing the city’s capability to reduce systemic risk.