A CO2 Emission Trading Scheme for German Road Transport

Abstract

Economic models and their enrichment through multi-agent features 4.1 Simulation within the social sciences 68 4.2 Classical economic models 70 4.3 Multi-agent models 4.3.1 Evolution and epistemology of multi-agent models 73 4.3.2 Properties of a behavioural multi-agent model in road transport 4.3.3 Discussion: classical microeconomic vs. multi-agent models 4.3.4 Software for programming multi-agent models 82 4.4 Previous models used to analyse transport behaviour in Germany 4.4.1 The idea behind microeconomic transport models 4.4.2 The idea of macroeconomic transport models 4.5 Previous multi-agent models in road transport 4.6 Conclusions III 5 Impacts on German road transport through a CO 2 certificate trading scheme 5.1 World of simulation: artificial German road transport 92 5.2 The developed model 5.2.1 Model schedule 5.2.2 Classes, parameters and data structure of the model 100 5.2.3 Price policy of oil companies 5.2.4 Reaction behaviour of freight forwarders 5.2.5 Reaction behaviour of households 119 5.2.6 Passenger car purchase of households 131 5.3 Results of the meso economic model 137 5.4 Conclusions IV 6 Macroeconomic impacts through a CO 2 certificate trading scheme 147 6.1 The system dynamics model ASTRA 147 6.2 The business-as-usual scenario 6.3 Economic impacts 6.4 Environmental impacts 6.5 Conclusions V

Including road transport in the EU ETS (European Emissions Trading System): A model-based analysis of the German electricity and transport sector

“…MATSim (Multi Agent Transport Simulation) [29] and ILUTE (integrated land use, transportation, environment) [30]). As CO 2 emission reductions of optimised routing and navigation seem lower than reductions from car fleet technology and mileage, we neglect the underlying road network for the following analysis [14]. The COMIT model used here focuses on mode shift, mileage reduction, and vehicle purchase decision for private households and freight forwarders.…”

“…The COMIT model includes 700 different households and more than 600 different road freight transport actors, which represent the German traffic participants. The model was developed to analyse the impact of an extension of the EU ETS to German road transport [14]. In the model, the main agents are private house holds (demanding fuel and new passenger cars), freight forwarders (demanding diesel and new freight vehicles), vehicle manufac turers (providing new cars), and oil companies (importing/refining and selling fuel) ( Fig.…”

“…Furthermore, the household agents decide once a year whether to buy a new (or used) car or continue to drive their old one. Simultaneously, freight forwarders randomly receive transport orders from the database [14] every day and execute these orders using trucks or combined means of transport (trucke trainetruck) according to the underlying logit model [31] (eq. (5)).…”

“…[12,13]) and comparatively low marginal CO 2 abatement costs in the energy sector, such an integration into the EU ETS leads to monetary flows from the transport sector to the other EU ETS sectors rather than to real emission reductions within the road transport sector. An efficient reduction of overall emission is, however, assured [14].…”

“…The road transport sector, by contrast, is characterised by individual purchase de cisions (especially in passenger transport) of multiple actors with heterogeneous preferences and decision patterns. Here we apply the COMIT (CO 2 emission Mitigation in the Transport sector) 2 model, which is a MAS (multi agent based simulation) model, which is widely accepted as being able to cope with these (some times irrational) inhomogeneities [14]. As already stated, this combination of sophisticated models of both sectors is necessary in order to achieve sound results for our research question.…”