A collaborative dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures

A Risk Scenario for Small Businesses in Hurricane Sandy Type Disasters

“…In a pair of related studies, application of the CIA-ISM approach was used to assess the impact of a series of negative events against Critical Infrastructure (CI) [35,36]. Infrastructure elements may be considered critical when they provide a function that is essential for routine processes and for which no rapid substitute exists.…”

“…Only areas with which an expert was familiar were judged. The resultant model of influences was deemed reasonable [35]. A follow-up paper examines the cascading effects of the critical infrastructure failures during disasters using scenario software currently under development [36].…”

“…The current research builds on the 2014 CI study [35] to uncover relationships in a set of risks and mitigating actions that small business owners can use as a foundation of a business continuity/disaster recovery plan. This process, which combines the Delphi Method, CIA, and ISM methods, will hopefully ease the planning burden on a business with limited resources.…”

“…Each of the participants was given two lists. The first was a list of risks divided into sixteen categories based on the recent study by Turoff, et al [35] and the recently published New York City Sandy resiliency report [39]. The second list was a set of mitigation actions that can lessen the effect of the threats.…”

“…The influence probabilities of the events paired two at a time, known as C(i,j) were determined by the average values of the influence probabilities. We only asked participants to give probabilities for areas in which they considered themselves competent [35]. The output from the calculation evaluates the Gamma variable, G(i), which takes into account the impact of events that have not been explicitly specified.…”