A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios

Göke, Leonard; Weibezahn, Jens; Hirschhausen, Christian von

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.102957

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Long-term modeling underlies unavoidable uncertainty regarding policy, demand, supply, and price development, amongst other factors [82]. To provide a range of results that could be feasible in the long term, the application of scenarios that differ from one another in terms of certain assumptions is necessary [83].…”

Section: Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty

Wimmers,

Madlener

2023

Energies

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Guarantees of Origin (GOs) were introduced in order to enhance transparency about the origin of green electricity produced in Europe, and to deliberately empower end-consumers to participate in the sustainable energy transition. The separation of electricity and the GO trade has resulted in a prosperous GO market that, however, has been characterized by non-transparency and opportunistic behavior. Historic price development has been opaque and can therefore not be used to forecast future GO prices. This paper, firstly, provides a thorough overview of the European GO market and an analysis of the historic price development; secondly, it proposes a model, the first of its kind, for determining future price developments of European GOs for different renewable energy technologies in different countries up to 2040. For household consumers, GO price determination is based on willingness-to-pay estimates from the literature, whereas for non-household consumers, the model introduces a novel approach to determine the willingness to pay for green electricity. Four different scenarios are considered (Status Quo, Sustainable Development, Full Harmonization, and Ideal Development) and annual GO data are used. The findings indicate that GO prices can be expected to increase on average in the next years, with prices ranging from 1.77 to 3.36 EUR/MWh in 2040. Sensitivity analysis shows that ‘WTP percentages’ have the highest influence on GO prices. It can be concluded that future GO prices will remain challenging to predict, even with the support of sophisticated models, due to the expected supply and demand-driven market growth affecting the market equilibrium prices for different GOs in different countries.

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Section: Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty

Wimmers,

Madlener

2023

Energies

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“…The fourth measure (Involve the public & decision-makers) will contain focus group processes with selected target groups to test the visualisation tools and interactive elements for scenario analysis. This process will not only allow to improve and adapt the scenario comparison service from this Task Area, but also helps to identify mismatches between the needs of users and modellers regarding the types of models and analysis applied to study long term scenarios of the energy transition [7], [8]. The central outcome of this measure will be a communication guide for modellers targeting specific audiences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NFDI4Energy Case-Study: Comparative Analysis and Visualisation of Long-Term Energy System Scenarios

Schäfer,

Qussous,

Hülk

et al. 2023

Proc Conf Res Data Infrastr

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Analysis and comparison of energy system scenarios provide valuable insights into potential transformation pathways. These studies on long-term developments can serve as new inputs for scientific research and decision-making processes, providing policymakers and other stakeholders with the necessary guidance to achieve sustainable energy systems. Generally, such scenarios are derived from energy system models which often seek a cost-optimal system design under a variety of boundary conditions, ranging from technical constraints to limits of land availability or a cap on overall greenhouse gas emissions [1]. For Germany, several larger energy system scenario studies have been published, addressing the goal of carbon neutrality in 2045 as prescribed in the German climate protection act [2]. These studies show differences in their specific methodology, sector representation, parameter settings or, more generally, overall scenario narratives. This diversity represents a challenge regarding the comparability of these studies, and consequently the ability to identify consensus and controversies in their findings. Often only limited access to data for parameter settings and scenario results is provided. Almost always the data is presented in different detail and formats, thus imposing further barriers for comparison and usability for the scientific community [3]. As one of the three use cases applied in Task Area 6 of the NFDI4Energy research project, we aim to address this challenge by providing transparent and open comparative information and data on long-term energy system scenarios. Selected scenarios for the transition towards a climate-neutral Germany will be annotated with terms form the Open Energy Ontology (OEO) [4]. The comparison is building on an already existing database infrastructure from the Open Energy Platform (OEP) [5]. Existing concepts for qualitative and quantitative comparisons will be used and improved to cover a wide range of existing energy system studies.

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Stabilized Benders decomposition for energy planning under climate uncertainty

Göke,

Schmidt,

Kendziorski

2024

European Journal of Operational Research

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A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios

Cited by 6 publications

References 85 publications

The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty

The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty

NFDI4Energy Case-Study: Comparative Analysis and Visualisation of Long-Term Energy System Scenarios

Stabilized Benders decomposition for energy planning under climate uncertainty

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