A combined pre- and intra-operative nomogram in evaluation of degrees of liver cirrhosis predicts post-hepatectomy liver failure: a multicenter prospective study

Abstract

Background: Adequate evaluation of degrees of liver cirrhosis is essential in surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The impact of the degrees of cirrhosis on prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains poorly defined. This study aimed to construct and validate a combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram based on the degrees of cirrhosis in predicting PHLF in HCC patients using prospective multi-center's data.Methods: Consecutive HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy between May 18, 2019 and Dec 19, 2020 were enrolled at five tertiary hospitals. Preoperative cirrhotic severity scoring (CSS) and intra-operative direct liver stiffness measurement (DSM) were performed to correlate with the Laennec histopathological grading system. The performances of the pre-operative nomogram and combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram in predicting PHLF were compared with conventional predictive models of PHLF.Results: For 327 patients in this study, histopathological studies showed the rates of HCC patients with no, mild, moderate, and severe cirrhosis were 41.9%, 29.1%, 22.9%, and 6.1%, respectively. Either CSS or DSM was closely correlated with histopathological stages of cirrhosis. Thirty-three (10.1%) patients developed PHLF. The 30-and 90-day mortality rates were 0.9%. Multivariate regression analysis showed four preoperative variables [HBV-DNA level, ICG-R15, prothrombin time (PT), and CSS], and one intra-operative variable (DSM) to be independent risk factors of PHLF. The pre-operative nomogram was constructed based Highlight box Key findings• Four pre-operative variables (HBV-DNA level, ICG-R15, prothrombin time, and CSS), and one intra-operative variable (DSM) were independent risk factors of post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). • Both the pre-operative nomogram and the combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram were efficient in predicting PHLF. What is known and what is new?• What is known: Adequate evaluation of degrees of liver cirrhosis is essential in surgical treatment of HCC patients. • What is new: This study constructed and validated a combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram based on the degrees of cirrhosis in predicting PHLF in HCC patients. What is the implication, and what should change now?• The pre-operative model should be used pre-operatively to identify individuals who are at high risks of developing PHLF. The combined pre-and intra-operative model should be used to make a final decision on whether to continue with hepatectomy or to carry out a lesser extent of hepatectomy.on these four pre-operative variables together with total bilirubin. The combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram was constructed by adding the intra-operative DSM. The pre-operative nomogram was better than the conventional models in predicting PHLF. The prediction was further improved with the combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram. Conclusions:The combined pre-and intra-operative nomogram further improved prediction of PHLF when compared with the pre-operative nomogram.