A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia

Althobaity, Yehya; Wu, Jianhong; Tildesley, Michael J.

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.002

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…4 , Additional file 1 : Fig. S3 [ 9 , 10 , 12 , 13 , 21 , 27 – 31 , 34 , 37 – 39 , 44 – 51 , 53 , 54 , 56 , 57 , 59 , 60 , 63 , 64 , 67 , 68 , 71 , 76 , 79 , 81 – 84 , 89 , 90 , 93 , 94 , 98 , 99 , 106 , 109 , 110 , 119 – 121 , 123 , 124 , 126 – 128 , 131 , 133 , 136 – 139 , 141 , 142 , 144 – 153 , 156 – 158 , 160 , 161 , 164 – 166 ]). Five studies did not specify the Omicron subvariant, and their pooled mean was 3.71 days (95% CI: 2.93–4.49 days); by pooling the estimates of the Omicron subvariants, the mean incubation period was 3.19 days (95% CI: 2.95–3.43 days).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Xu,

Wu,

Kummer

et al. 2023

BMC Med

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Background After the first COVID-19 wave caused by the ancestral lineage, the pandemic has been fueled from the continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Understanding key time-to-event periods for each emerging variant of concern is critical as it can provide insights into the future trajectory of the virus and help inform outbreak preparedness and response planning. Here, we aim to examine how the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time have changed from the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 lineage to different variants of concern. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that synthesized the estimates of incubation period, serial interval, and generation time (both realized and intrinsic) for the ancestral lineage, Alpha, Beta, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2. Results Our study included 280 records obtained from 147 household studies, contact tracing studies, or studies where epidemiological links were known. With each emerging variant, we found a progressive shortening of each of the analyzed key time-to-event periods, although we did not find statistically significant differences between the Omicron subvariants. We found that Omicron BA.1 had the shortest pooled estimates for the incubation period (3.49 days, 95% CI: 3.13–4.86 days), Omicron BA.5 for the serial interval (2.37 days, 95% CI: 1.71–3.04 days), and Omicron BA.1 for the realized generation time (2.99 days, 95% CI: 2.48–3.49 days). Only one estimate for the intrinsic generation time was available for Omicron subvariants: 6.84 days (95% CrI: 5.72–8.60 days) for Omicron BA.1. The ancestral lineage had the highest pooled estimates for each investigated key time-to-event period. We also observed shorter pooled estimates for the serial interval compared to the incubation period across the virus lineages. When pooling the estimates across different virus lineages, we found considerable heterogeneities (I2 > 80%; I2 refers to the percentage of total variation across studies that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance), possibly resulting from heterogeneities between the different study populations (e.g., deployed interventions, social behavior, demographic characteristics). Conclusions Our study supports the importance of conducting contact tracing and epidemiological investigations to monitor changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns. Our findings highlight a progressive shortening of the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time, which can lead to epidemics that spread faster, with larger peak incidence, and harder to control. We also consistently found a shorter serial interval than incubation period, suggesting that a key feature of SARS-CoV-2 is the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission. These observations are instrumental to plan for future COVID-19 waves.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Xu,

Wu,

Kummer

et al. 2023

BMC Med

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“…Since the emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002, various coronaviruses have periodically posed a continuous threat ( Li et al, 2020 ). Among them, MERS displayed a high fatality rate due to its prolonged incubation period and severe symptoms ( Althobaity et al, 2022 ). The most recent coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, demonstrated heightened transmissibility ( Dhama et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dual-targeting approach using a human bispecific antibody against the receptor-binding domain of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Lee,

Kim,

Lee

et al. 2024

Virus Research

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“…We set the transmissibility of P to be the same as undocumented cases because it has previously been noted that the bulk of cases are undocumented 13,16 . We defined the incubation period as 5.2 days and the pre-symptomatic infectious period as D p = 2.3 days 3,15,17 . Therefore, the latent period was D e = 5.2 − 2.3 = 2.9 days.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Althobaity

Tildesley

2023

Sci Rep

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Countries around the world have implemented a series of interventions to contain the pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and significant lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of the disease caused by—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh regions of Saudi Arabia, where robust non-pharmaceutical interventions effectively suppressed the local outbreak of this disease. On the basis of 333732 laboratory-confirmed cases, we used mathematical modelling to reconstruct the complete spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia between 2 March and 25 September 2020 over 5 periods characterised by events and interventions. Our model account for asymptomatic and presymptomatic infectiousness, time-varying ascertainable infection rate, and transmission rates. Our results indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions were effective in containing the epidemic, with reproduction numbers decreasing on average to 0.29 (0.19–0.66) in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh region. The chance of resurgence after the lifting of all interventions after 30 consecutive days with no symptomatic cases is also examined and emphasizes the danger presented by largely hidden infections while switching control strategies. These findings have major significance for evaluating methods for maintaining monitoring and interventions to eventually reduce outbreaks of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia in the future.

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A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia

Cited by 11 publications

References 44 publications

Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis

A dual-targeting approach using a human bispecific antibody against the receptor-binding domain of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

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