A Comparative Analysis of the Risk Profiles of Australian Young Offenders From Rural and Urban Communities

Abstract

Australian young people from rural areas, particularly Aboriginal young people, are overrepresented in the juvenile justice system. Apart from broad evidence regarding the entrenched social disadvantages experienced by young people in rural communities, the literature is limited in describing why this might be case. Due to these social disadvantages, it is hypothesised that young offenders from rural communities will have higher levels of offending risk factors, as measured by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory—Australian Adaption (YLS/CMI-AA). A total of 6,750 archival records were analysed, showing that significantly more Aboriginal young offenders live in rural areas. Contrary to the hypothesis, urban young offenders had significantly higher risk scores than rural young offenders. These findings suggest that there may be particular ecological factors that are not assessed in the current risk assessment instrument or that rural young people have a range of protective factors that may insulate against the broader context of social disadvantage.

Developing youth justice policy and programme design in Australia

“…Information about where young people who offend lives is of particular importance to any attempt to achieve these targets, given that 41% of Aboriginal young people who are under the supervision of youth justice services come from regional, remote, or very remote communities while only 8% of non-Aboriginal youth come from these areas (Australian Institute of Health & Welfare, 2018). The importance of this is highlighted in data reported by Butcher et al (2019) which shows that Aboriginal young people in New South Wales (NSW) who had offended for the first time were more likely to come from rural of areas despite having lower levels of assessed risk and need than their urban counterparts. For Butcher et al, this suggests that any policy that aims to address the over-representation of Aboriginal rural young people will need to be cognisant of the unique context and structure of each community, rather than simply importing population health interventions from other parts of the world.…”

“…The importance of this is highlighted in data reported by Butcher et al. (2019) which shows that Aboriginal young people in New South Wales (NSW) who had offended for the first time were more likely to come from rural of areas despite having lower levels of assessed risk and need than their urban counterparts. For Butcher et al., this suggests that any policy that aims to address the over‐representation of Aboriginal rural young people will need to be cognisant of the unique context and structure of each community, rather than simply importing population health interventions from other parts of the world.…”

Associations Between Parole Outcomes and Characteristics of People Under Supervision, Supervising Officer, and Supervising Office

“…These differences may relate to organizational issues (e.g., the recruitment of staff or the availability of resources in the community) as well as to the characteristics of people. For example, a recent study reported that young people in a geographically remote part of Australia were, on average, at a lower risk of reoffending than those in the metropolitan area (Butcher et al, 2019). In considering the characteristics of people under supervision that are likely to be associated with effective community supervision outcomes, there is evidence that high-risk people who receive more intensive supervision benefit the most (i.e., adherence to the risk principle; see Bourgon et al, 2010), given that risk is associated with many personal characteristics, including age, type of offense, and criminal history.…”

Community engagement in youth justice program design

“…These programs aim to reduce involvement with the justice system by addressing the presence or intensity of empirically derived risk factors thought to be associated with offending behaviour (Day & Fransisco, 2013; Poyton & Menendez, 2015; Stewart et al., 2014; Trimboli, 2019). However, recent evidence has shown significant differences between standardised risk profiles of Aboriginal young people who offend from rural, regional and remote areas and their metropolitan counterparts, thus drawing attention to the influence of ecology has on offending risk patterns (Butcher et al., 2019). A potential explanation for the apparent lack of progress being made in reducing over-representation is that current youth justice programs are not a sufficiently good fit to the contexts of Aboriginal rural young people, and therefore, have a low level of ecological validity (see H. Blagg, et al., 2015; Gray & Hetherington, 2007; Lavery, 2018).…”