A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Approaches to Modeling Intersectoral and Intercounty Employmet Linkages in Rural Regional Labor Markets*

Abstract

The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: h i k e ' s final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputitime series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.

Forecasting, impact analysis and uncertainty propagation in regional integrated models: A case study of Australia

“…Similarly, interdependencies among economic factors such as unemployment, labour force participation rate, etc., in labour market are analysed through a VAR approach. The generated estimates are then assigned prior probabilities and treated stochastically by a Bayesian VAR to determine sectoral employments (Fawson and Criddle, 1994;LeSage and Magura, 1991;Magura, 1987;Motii, 2005;Rey, 1998).…”

“…However, as the integration framework has developed, innovative approaches have embedded IO coefficients in regional econometric models (Coomes et al, 1991;Moghadam and Ballard, 1988) or coupled the two models (Treyz et al, 1992). Some researchers also used IO coefficients as guidance in specifying equation of vector autoregression 2 (VAR) models (Fawson and Criddle, 1994). Moreover, a few researchers have incorporated IO linkages into Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) forecasting models (LeSage and Magura, 1991;Magura, 1990).…”

“…The a priori IO components in an econometric model are designed to improve the predictive accuracy of the embedded model. Most embedded approaches have been applied to model the economy of metropolitan areas (Coomes et al, 1991) or of regions consisting of one or more countries (Fawson and Criddle, 1994;Rey, 1998Rey, , 2000. More recently, Rickman (2002) has applied an integrating strategy to a state-level economy.…”

Integrated regional econometric+input‐output modeling: Issues and opportunities

“…There is now a modest body of literature suggesting that integrated EC+IO models can offer more accurate forecasts than the traditional structural econometric models (Glennon et al 1987;Moghadam and Ballard 1988;Rey 1998). The same appears to be true of the time-series models (i.e., a-theoretical) in which labor market models employing a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach are often dominated by Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models in which IO relations are used as prior information to specify employment determination equations (Fawson and Criddle 1994;LeSage and Magura 1991;Magura 1987;Partridge and Rickman 1998a).…”

A Dynamic Integration Approach in Regional Input-Output and Econometric Models

“…The embedding of a priori inter-industry information in an input-output econometric model is designed to improve its predictive accuracy. Historically, embedding strategies have mostly been applied to the input-output econometric modeling of metropolitan areas (Coomes, Olson, and Glennon 1991) and of regions consisting of one or more counties (Fawson and Criddle 1994). More recently, Rickman (2002) has applied an integrating strategy to a state-level economy.…”