A Comparison between Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Applied Generation Electrical Energies in Kurdistan Region

Abstract

The process of producing electricity from sources of energy is known as electricity production. Electric also isn't freely accessible in environment, thus it should be "manufactured" (i.e., converting another kinds of energy to electrical energy) by utilities with in electricity industry (transportation, distributing, and so on).Moreover, the objective of this study is to compared of Brown’s as well as Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing also build a best forecasting time series model among two smoothing model forecasting, as well as focuses on optimizing characteristics to use the golden section technique. This exponential smoothing approach has been one of the time series forecasting methods that would be used to forecast (Generation Electrical) with in Kurdistan area. The issue that arises with this technique is determining the appropriate parameters to reduce predict inaccuracy. In addition, Data used in this paper are (Generation Electrical) in Kurdistan region for (132) months from 2010 to 2020. The study revealed that such data is trending modeled, indicating that a double exponential smoothing (DES) approach from Brown & Holt can be used with the (Stratigraphic & Minitab) software. There are the same results but the Result of analysis more depend on the R-program. The difference among the forecast findings acquired with optimum parameters as well as the assaying data was utilized to assess the feasibility of the forecast by completing normality and randomness tests. Ultimately, the outcomes of parameterization show that the optimal value of α that in DES Brown is (0.22) as well as the optimal MAPE is 9.23616 percent, whereas in DES Holt the optimal is (0.95) as well as the optimal β is (0.05) via the optimal MAPE of 8.08586 percent. This MAPE of a DES Brown technique is greater than the MAPE of a DES Holt approach. Feasibility experiments revealed that both approaches are capable of predicting. Depending on the value of MAPE as well as evaluation process, DES Holt's was recognized as the main prediction model.

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