A comparison of several cyclo-stationary and fractionally differenced time-varying autoregressive models in runoff simulation and prediction

Guo, Tianli; Song, Songbai; Liu, Xin; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Gengxi

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131509

Journal of Hydrology

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131509

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A comparison of several cyclo-stationary and fractionally differenced time-varying autoregressive models in runoff simulation and prediction

Tianli Guo,

Songbai Song,

Xin Liu

et al.

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Ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff for the past 70 years in two main watersheds of China

Song,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Water resources in China, especially in the major basins of the Songhua and Yangtze Rivers, are characterized by uneven distribution both temporally and spatially, leading to notable challenges in per capita water availability. In this study, we investigate the ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff over the past 70 years in two of China's major watersheds: the Songhua River and the Yangtze River. By dividing each basin into several regions from upstream to downstream, based on annual mean discharge as a proxy for annual runoff, we observed a significant correlation between the annual runoff of the control sections and that of the upstream and downstream regions in these large watersheds. Consequently, this study establishes the probability distribution of annual runoff for each region within the basins, anchored on the design annual runoff of the control sections, using the joint bivariate logarithmic normal distribution of two interrelated random variables. Furthermore, we developed a relationship between the conditional probability distribution and correlation diagram data, and a regression equation correlating regional annual runoff with the watershed control section's runoff. This investigation into the historical patterns of runoff over the past 70 years provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics in these critical watersheds.

show abstract

Ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff for the past 70 years in two main watersheds of China

Song,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Journal of Water and Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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A comparison of several cyclo-stationary and fractionally differenced time-varying autoregressive models in runoff simulation and prediction

Cited by 1 publication

References 53 publications

Ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff for the past 70 years in two main watersheds of China

Ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff for the past 70 years in two main watersheds of China

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