2007
DOI: 10.5194/angeo-25-2427-2007
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A comparison of the probability distribution of observed substorm magnitude with that predicted by a minimal substorm model

Abstract: Abstract.We compare the probability distributions of substorm magnetic bay magnitudes from observations and a minimal substorm model. The observed distribution was derived previously and independently using the IL index from the IMAGE magnetometer network. The model distribution is derived from a synthetic AL index time series created using real solar wind data and a minimal substorm model, which was previously shown to reproduce observed substorm waiting times. There are two free parameters in the model which… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(16 citation statements)
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“…Given that the autocorrelation e ‐folding time of the solar wind velocity is 32 h compared to 5–10 h for the solar wind magnetic field [ Borovsky et al, ] and that the solar wind ram pressure is approximately constant during individual substorms [ Kistler et al, ], we determine a functional relationship between solar wind driving and plasma sheet pressure assuming that pressure variations in the plasma sheet during the growth phase result from the addition of magnetic flux to the tail lobes. Morley et al [] determined a functional form of the polar cap potential with respect to solar wind driving (their equation (10)): normalΦ=2×104πp×10613+1.4×103()πp×106where p=εtrue/4πl02 is the solar wind power per unit area. Taking this equation and assuming no loss of lobe flux during the growth phase, the increase in magnetic flux in the lobes is then F=normalΦtwhere t is an integration period, taken in this case to be an hour.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Given that the autocorrelation e ‐folding time of the solar wind velocity is 32 h compared to 5–10 h for the solar wind magnetic field [ Borovsky et al, ] and that the solar wind ram pressure is approximately constant during individual substorms [ Kistler et al, ], we determine a functional relationship between solar wind driving and plasma sheet pressure assuming that pressure variations in the plasma sheet during the growth phase result from the addition of magnetic flux to the tail lobes. Morley et al [] determined a functional form of the polar cap potential with respect to solar wind driving (their equation (10)): normalΦ=2×104πp×10613+1.4×103()πp×106where p=εtrue/4πl02 is the solar wind power per unit area. Taking this equation and assuming no loss of lobe flux during the growth phase, the increase in magnetic flux in the lobes is then F=normalΦtwhere t is an integration period, taken in this case to be an hour.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Intervals during which dSML/dt was less (more) than the median negative (positive) change were labeled as expansion (recovery) phase times. The main difference between our method and that of Juusola et al [2011] is that we take all nonexpansion or recovery phase intervals to be growth phases (Juusola et al [2011] only considered southward IMF intervals) since solar wind power input functions, such as the ε function [Perreault and Akasofu, 1978;Akasofu, 1979;Morley et al, 2007], are nonzero for all but purely northward IMF.…”
Section: Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…DP1 is the least well‐explained mode set (at 17%) based on the IMF, which is expected since it represents the equivalent current response to substorm onset. This is an impulsive response to a time‐integrated property of the IMF and arguably (Freeman & Morley, ; Morley et al, ) also to an additional trigger from upstream IMF variations in around half of cases (Milan et al, ). It is likely that more of the variability of the B z ‐controlled modes would be explained by a nonlinear function of the solar wind parameters (e.g., Boynton et al, ; Finch & Lockwood, ; Newell et al, ; Spencer et al, ), but we do not investigate this here.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%