A Comparison of Tornado Warning Lead Times with and without NEXRAD Doppler Radar

Bieringer, Paul E.; Ray, Peter S.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0047:acotwl>2.0.co;2

Cited by 42 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Tornadoes warned in succession are more likely to be warnings on tornadoes already in progress, whereas the first tornado warning of the day is likely a warning based on the anticipation of what will occur. Bieringer and Ray (1996) also found a much lower warning lead time for the first tornado events of the day.…”

Section: H High-impact Eventsmentioning

confidence: 90%

NWS Tornado Warnings with Zero or Negative Lead Times

Brotzge

Erickson

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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During a 5-yr period of study from 2000 to 2004, slightly more than 10% of all National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings were issued either simultaneously as the tornado formed (i.e., with zero lead time) or minutes after initial tornado formation but prior to tornado dissipation (i.e., with ''negative'' lead time). This study examines why these tornadoes were not warned in advance, and what climate, storm morphology, and sociological factors may have played a role in delaying the issuance of the warning. This dataset of zero and negative lead time warnings are sorted by their F-scale ratings, geographically by region and weather forecast office (WFO), hour of the day, month of the year, tornado-to-radar distance, county population density, and number of tornadoes by day, hour, and order of occurrence. Two key results from this study are (i) providing advance warning on the first tornado of the day remains a difficult challenge and (ii) the more isolated the tornado event, the less likelihood that an advance warning is provided. WFOs that experience many large-scale outbreaks have a lower proportion of warnings with negative lead time than WFOs that experience many more isolated, one-tornado or two-tornado warning days. Monthly and geographic trends in lead time are directly impacted by the number of multiple tornado events. Except for a few isolated cases, the impacts of tornado-to-radar distance, county population density, and storm morphology did not have a significant impact on negative lead-time warnings.

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Section: H High-impact Eventsmentioning

confidence: 90%

NWS Tornado Warnings with Zero or Negative Lead Times

Brotzge

Erickson

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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“…In prior research on the use of Twitter for crowd sourcing examining tornado risk information indicates that tornadoes even under favorable climate conditions are difficult to detect and predict accurately even with advanced network of integrated NEXRAD (Next Generation Weather Radar) WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar -1988 Doppler) (Bieringer and Ray 1996). Given such short warning lead times, prior research on tornado warnings even argues that early warnings which do not reach the citizens and motivate their appropriate responses are not very valuable, even if they are accurate and timely (Doswell et al 1999).…”

Section: Risk Perception Communicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Risk Communication Gaps through E-Government Website and Twitter Hashtag Content Analyses: The Case of Indonesia’s Mt. Sinabung Eruption

Chatfield

Reddick

2015

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

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Despite operational volcano surveillance using meteorological satellite, thermal remote sensing and infrared camera technologies, predicting a volcano's hazardous activity and explosive eruption, with any accuracy, remains nearly impossible. Volcanic hazards and risk literature identifies risk communication as critical but insufficiently understood. This paper, therefore, investigates disaster risk communications during Indonesia's Mt. Sinabung eruptions in February 2014, causing 16 deaths and continuous evacuations of 30,000 residents. We critically examined one-way government-to-citizens communications via e-government websites and Twitter and citizens' multi-directional communications via #sinabung hashtag for sharing volcano risk perceptions about affected villagers. Our Twitter analysis of #sinabung found evidence for the absence of government engagement in risk perception communications and leadership in responding to the Indonesian public's expressed concerns for the Mt. Sinabung disaster. For governments that would implement citizencentric e-governance, Twitter can be used effectively as a multi-directional risk communication tool to quickly and effectively share risk perceptions and disaster information with the public. Abstract: Despite operational volcano surveillance using meteorological satellite, thermal remote sensing and infrared camera technologies, predicting a volcano's hazardous activity and explosive eruption, with any accuracy, remains nearly impossible. Volcanic hazards and risk literature identifies risk communication as critical but insufficiently understood. This paper, therefore, investigates disaster risk communications during Indonesia's Mt. Sinabung eruptions in February 2014, causing 16 deaths and continuous evacuations of 30,000 residents. We critically examined one-way government-to-citizens communications via e-government websites and Twitter and citizens' multi-directional communications via #sinabung hashtag for sharing volcano risk perceptions about affected villagers. Our Twitter analysis of #sinabung found evidence for the absence of government engagement in risk perception communications and leadership in responding to the Indonesian public's expressed concerns for the Mt. Sinabung disaster. For governments that would implement citizen-centric e-governance, Twitter can be used effectively as a multi-directional risk communication tool to quickly and effectively share risk perceptions and disaster information with the public.

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“…In prior research on the use of Twitter for crowdsourcing of tornado risk information [8, p.1], authors stated: "Tornadoes very often develop with short warning lead times under favorable climate conditions, and hence continuing to be very difficult to detect and predict accurately even with the installation of the network of integrated NEXRAD (Next Generation Weather Radar) WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar -1988 Doppler) since 1993 in the US [4]. Given such short warning lead times, prior research on tornado warnings even argues that early warnings which do not reach the citizens and motivate their appropriate responses are not very valuable, even if they are accurate and timely [11]."…”

Section: Risk Perception Communicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

E-government, social media, and risk perception communication at the edge of disaster

Chatfield

Reddick

Inan

et al. 2014

Proceedings of the 15th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research

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Despite operational volcano surveillance using meteorological satellite, thermal remote sensing and infrared camera technologies, predicting its hazardous activity and explosive eruption, with any accuracy, remains nearly impossible. Against this, volcanic hazards and risk literature identifies risk communication as a new research challenge. This study presents insights from the disaster risk communication practice, during the Mt. Sinabung eruptions in February 2014, causing 16 deaths and continuous evacuations of 30,000 local residents. We examined IT uses, including e-government websites and social media, which facilitated or inhibited communications of risk perceptions by governments, the affected villagers, and the public. Based on findings, we discuss socio-political and socio-technical implications for overcoming inter-agency coordination and clear cross-jurisdictional communication challenges so as to improve external political efficacy of volcanic risk communication and to empower the public living at the edge of disaster and take appropriate and timely responses that would mitigate the volcanic hazards and risk.

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A Comparison of Tornado Warning Lead Times with and without NEXRAD Doppler Radar

Cited by 42 publications

References 2 publications

NWS Tornado Warnings with Zero or Negative Lead Times

NWS Tornado Warnings with Zero or Negative Lead Times

Understanding Risk Communication Gaps through E-Government Website and Twitter Hashtag Content Analyses: The Case of Indonesia’s Mt. Sinabung Eruption

E-government, social media, and risk perception communication at the edge of disaster

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