A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

Dashtbali, Mohammadali; Mirzaie, Mehdi

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-86873-0

Cited by 83 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Based on current evidence, COVID-19 is transmitted through droplets and direct contact with infected persons and/or surfaces (World Health Organization, 2020 ). Consequently, and following from its known mode of transmission, strategies advocated to control the spread of the virus include: mask wearing in public; consistent handwashing; disinfecting exposed surfaces; maintaining social or physical distancing; self-isolation following exposure; and lockdowns to reduce the chances of people intermingling; and passing on the virus from one to another, and vaccination (Dashtbali & Mirzaie, 2021 ; Ma et al, 2020 ; Musinguzi & Asamoah, 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

Makinde¹,

Akinyemi

Ntoimo

et al. 2021

Genus

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Household habitat conditions matter for diseases transmission and control, especially in the case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). These conditions include availability and adequacy of sanitation facilities, and number of persons per room. Despite this, little attention is being paid to these conditions as a pathway to understanding the transmission and prevention of COVID-19, especially in Africa, where household habitat conditions are largely suboptimal. This study assesses household sanitation and isolation capacities to understand the COVID-19 transmission risk at household level across Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Surveys of 16 African countries implemented between 2015 and 2018 to understand the status of households for prevention of COVID-19 transmission in home. We assessed handwashing capacity and self-isolation capacity using multiple parameters, and identified households with elderly persons, who are most at risk of the disease. We fitted two-level random intercept logit models to explore independent relationships among the three indicators, while controlling for the selected explanatory variables. Handwashing capacity was highest in Tanzania (48.2%), and lowest in Chad (4.2%), varying by household location (urban or rural), as well as household wealth. Isolation capacity was highest in South Africa (77.4%), and lowest in Ethiopia (30.9%). Senegal had the largest proportion of households with an elderly person (42.1%), while Angola (16.4%) had the lowest. There were strong, independent relationships between handwashing and isolation capacities in a majority of countries. Also, strong associations were found between isolation capacity and presence of older persons in households. Household capacity for COVID-19 prevention varied significantly across countries, with those having elderly household members not necessarily having the best handwashing or isolation capacity. In view of the age risk factors of COVID-19 transmission, and its dependence on handwashing and isolation capacities of households, each country needs to use the extant information on its risk status to shape communication and intervention strategies that will help limit the impact of the disease in its population across Africa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

Makinde¹,

Akinyemi

Ntoimo

et al. 2021

Genus

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“…One step in that direction, it is to consider mathematical compartmental models to capture the key features of the coronavirus pandemic. Many authors already have applied different mathematical models to study the coronavirus pandemic [ [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] ] but only few have included vaccination [ [6] , [7] , [8] ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of vaccination in a COVID-19 compartmental model

Esteban

Almodovar-Abreu

2021

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked

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“…Concerning pharmaceutical interventions, most of the models deal with the vaccination. In Dashtbali & Mirzaie [ 14 ], Giordano et al . [ 15 ], Moore et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Concerning pharmaceutical interventions, most of the models deal with the vaccination. In Dashtbali & Mirzaie [14], Giordano et al [15], Moore et al [16] or Xu et al [17], vaccination is modelled in a new compartment of SIR-type by considering that susceptible individuals are vaccinated without delay.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study

Lanoix

Mammeri

Schmit

et al. 2021

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged healthcare systems worldwide. Lockdown, social distancing, and screening are thought to be the best means of stopping the virus from spreading and thus of preventing hospital capacity from being overloaded. However, it has also been suggested that effective outpatient treatment can control pandemics. We adapted a mathematical model of the beneficial effect of lockdown on viral transmission and used it to determine which characteristics of outpatient treatment would stop an epidemic. The data on confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths were collected from Santé Publique France. After defining components of the epidemic flow, we used a Morris global sensitivity analysis with a 10-level grid and 1000 trajectories to determine which of the treatment parameters had the largest effect. Treatment effectiveness was defined as a reduction in the patients' contagiousness. Early treatment initiation was associated with better disease control—as long as the treatment was highly effective. However, initiation of a treatment with a moderate effectiveness rate (5%) after the peak of the epidemic was still better than poor distancing (i.e. when compliance with social distancing rules was below 60%). Even though most of today's COVID-19 research is focused on inpatient treatment and vaccines, our results emphasize the potentially beneficial impact of even a moderately effective outpatient treatment on the current pandemic.

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A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

Cited by 83 publications

References 25 publications

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

Assessing the impact of vaccination in a COVID-19 compartmental model

Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study

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