A Composite Quantile Fourier Neural Network for Multi-Step Probabilistic Forecasting of Nonstationary Univariate Time Series

Abstract

A novel quantile Fourier neural network is presented for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting. Prediction are provided in the form of composite quantiles using time as the only input to the model. This effectively is a form of extrapolation based quantile regression applied for forecasting. Empirical results showcase that for time series data that have clear seasonality and trend, the model provides high quality probabilistic predictions. This work introduces a new class of forecasting of using only time as the input versus using past data such as an autoregressive model. Extrapolation based regression has not been studied before for probabilistic forecasting.