A comprehensive analysis of observed and projected climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant ‐ eastern Amazon, Brazil

Abstract

In this work, the climatology, observed trends, and future projections of temperature and precipitation extremes are analysed in the drainage area of the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant in the Xingu River basin. Observed data come from gridded information for the period 1980-2013. The climate projections until the end of the 21st century are provided by the regional climate model Eta-20 km nested to the global climate model MIROC5. Seventeen climate indicators were selected for this assessment, and statistical tests were used to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. A tropical climate predominates in the whole basin but with differences in the climatology of extreme temperature. The average annual rainfall (PRCPTOT) presents values between 1,500 and 2,200 mm. Remarkable contrasts of consecutive dry days (CDD) can also be seen. We found a warming signal during the examined period in much of the Xingu River basin, with an increase in the frequency of extremely warm days and nights. In the northern (south-central) area of the basin, there is an increase (reduction) in precipitation. There is a contrasted and local distribution of detected trends in all climate extremes indices related to rainfall. CDD has displayed a considerable elevation in the south-central area over the last decades. The study area exhibits statistically significant warming projections to the future climate. As for the precipitation projections, future changes are toward a dryer climate. We also found that dry periods may last longer in the following decades. Thus, heatwaves can be excited by subsequent days without precipitation in the basin in the future climate. The impacts of climate change on the balance of different environmental and socioeconomic sectors in this area must be wholly investigated.

Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Kedalaman dan Intensitas Hujan

“…Perubahan distribusi hujan dan kedalam hujan sangat berpengaruh terhadap penyediaan air untuk pemenuhan air multi sector [10]. Kecendrungan terjadi trend perubahan karakteristik hujan menuju iklim kering tidak hanya penurunan intensitas tetapi juga pergeseran musim keringa akan lebih Panjang dari periode sebelumnya [11]. Lebih lanjut menurut [12] analisis frekuensi juga menunjukan terjadi penurunan rerata kedalaman hujan dan frekuensi kejadian hujan.…”